Bubble ICM Calculation

[KingDan]

Right after I pushed all-in , I felt that I [censored] up.

This is my first ICM calculation, so can someone check the math?

The following hand was from a 50+5 on PP

Blinds 200/400

Important Reads: BB has been folding WAY too much.

UTG has 4560 Chips
Button has 3070
SB (me) 1280 after posting
BB 490 After posting

Folded to me, I see 23s and push anyway.
Against random hand 23s is 35% =1.8-1 underdog

I did the ICM calculation and saw..

Before hand my ev was .2044
If I fold, my EV is .176
If I push, get called and lose it drops to .09 (and this is twice as likely as winning if he calls)
If I win it is .2987
If he folds (unlikely) .2491

EV if fold= .176
EV If Push (assuming he never folds) approximately .16

Given my read that he may make a crazy fold EV if he folds =.2491
5% of fold chance, = +.004 to the EV, 10% chance .008
So if my math is correct, folding is better than pushing is better by somewhere between .8/1.2% of the prize pool.

[KingDan]

Bump

Can someone confirm that my math is right, or at least if my process was correct?

In the hand itself, I grossly overestimated my fold equity.

[lastchance]

Yeah, I think you did it right. Unless your FE is decent, this is a fold.

[newfant]

It sucks to have to fold there, but 23s is just too awful of a hand to push into someone who would only have 90 chips if they fold.

[KingDan]

They would have 490.

[KingDan]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I think you did it right. Unless your FE is decent, this is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This person has been folding a LOT, but with more chips. I figure it was unreasonable to figure he'd fold with 1.2 BBs here, even if they guy is too tight.

[Nottom]

This is a rough spot to be in. Against most players you can fold, but if you think there is basically any chance he will fold then you should go ahead and push. If he will fold stuff like 95o, and 83s then thats about all you really need to make this a push. Its really ugly, and very close but I think agaisnt an opponent like you described this may be a push (I'm constantly surprised at people's ability to fold in spots like this).

[rvg72]

I ran it through SNG Analyzer and assuming "maniac" calling standards it is +3.5% EV push which is very high. Fact of the matter is that his calling standards would be even lower than this (maniac = 38.5% call - I'd say he would be around 60% given the odds he's getting). Even with this high calling range it is still at least a +1.8% push due to the high blinds and his small stack.

If you are basing your decision on ICM then this would be a pretty clear push I think.

rvg