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#1
07-06-2005, 01:18 PM
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Live game bubble hand... thoughts?
Hoping to settle a dispute with a friend.
For the sake of discussion, I will be posting the hand with him as hero. $30 buy-in. Top 2 positions pay. Blinds: 80/160 Hero: t2500 SB: t6300 BB: t1200 Hero has A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and raises to t320 SB folds. BB pushes all-in. Hero???? ___ Hero went into the tank for about 3 minutes, and called. This was his rationale, as he explained it: He assumed villain was pushing unpaired paint. If he had a high PP, or AK, he would probably have reraised looking for action. He believed that he needed to seize chance to bust villain (a player he fears HU) even if he was only a slight favorite. If he calls and loses, he still has enough chips to play a few more hands. If he calls and wins, he is ITM with a decent stack. So what do you think? (FWIW, I think this is a fold.) 
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#2
07-06-2005, 01:27 PM
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Re: Live game bubble hand... thoughts?
[ QUOTE ]
Hoping to settle a dispute with a friend. For the sake of discussion, I will be posting the hand with him as hero. $30 buy-in. Top 2 positions pay. Blinds: 80/160 Hero: t2500 SB: t6300 BB: t1200 Hero has A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and raises to t320 SB folds. BB pushes all-in. Hero???? ___ Hero went into the tank for about 3 minutes, and called. This was his rationale, as he explained it: He assumed villain was pushing unpaired paint. If he had a high PP, or AK, he would probably have reraised looking for action. He believed that he needed to seize chance to bust villain (a player he fears HU) even if he was only a slight favorite. If he calls and loses, he still has enough chips to play a few more hands. If he calls and wins, he is ITM with a decent stack. So what do you think? (FWIW, I think this is a fold.) [/ QUOTE ] Let's math it up. He needs to call ~900 to win ~1500 so he's getting 5:3 on his call. Needs about 37.5 chance of winning to break even. Thing is, if hero loses, he will be short stack and FE will be drastically reduced. I'd say hero need about 43-45% chance of winning to make this a call. Actually, knowing the actual payouts would help. Is it very top-heavy? The more top heavy, the more I like the call. If 1st and 2nd get the same, I probably fold and try again.
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#3
07-06-2005, 01:30 PM
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Re: Live game bubble hand... thoughts?
Yah I probably fold this
What was your friend thinking min-betting from the button btw? If I was the SB and knew he min-bet with rags like this I'd be pushing back at him. Also I don't think the BB can "play back at him" if he is getting involved it is for all of his chips.
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#4
07-06-2005, 01:33 PM
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Re: Live game bubble hand... thoughts?
[ QUOTE ]
I'd say hero need about 43-45% chance of winning to make this a call. Actually, knowing the actual payouts would help. Is it very top-heavy? The more top heavy, the more I like the call. If 1st and 2nd get the same, I probably fold and try again. [/ QUOTE ] 60/40 payout. (Lame, I know, but they refuse to adopt a 5,3,2 structure.)
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#5
07-06-2005, 01:35 PM
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Re: Live game bubble hand... thoughts?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'd say hero need about 43-45% chance of winning to make this a call. Actually, knowing the actual payouts would help. Is it very top-heavy? The more top heavy, the more I like the call. If 1st and 2nd get the same, I probably fold and try again. [/ QUOTE ] 60/40 payout. (Lame, I know, but they refuse to adopt a 5,3,2 structure.) [/ QUOTE ] Clear fold then.
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