*puke* how many bets did I miss here?

RiverTheNuts · #1 07-05-2005, 09:21 PM

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (6 max, 10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
5 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, Button calls.

River: (9.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13.75 BB

Vote4Pedro · #2 07-05-2005, 09:25 PM

1?

istewart · #3 07-05-2005, 09:29 PM

AQ of some sort looks likely, depending on whether Villain will 3-bet it preflop. Either way, I can't put him on spades, AND you have the Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], so I would 3-bet.

RiverTheNuts · #4 07-05-2005, 09:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
AQ of some sort looks likely, depending on whether Villain will 3-bet it preflop. Either way, I can't put him on spades, AND you have the Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], so I would 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
very good observation, if I wasnt a dolt and noticed this I would have probably 3 bet it too... villain flips AQ and mhig

Greg J · #5 07-05-2005, 09:44 PM

I call down the river. Someone please tell me the value of 3 betting. Am I missing something?

Oh, and

[ QUOTE ]
(6 max, 10 handed)

[/ QUOTE ]
WTF?

istewart · #6 07-05-2005, 09:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I call down the river. Someone please tell me the value of 3 betting. Am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

If he doesn't have a flush (and I find it hard to put him on two spades exactly, aside from a "slowplayed" 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]), we have the nuts. There's JT98 on the board, he could have easily called with a Q this whole way.

Greg J · #7 07-05-2005, 10:02 PM

Okay, I think since the flop was not 2 flushed you have a good point.

moot · #8 07-05-2005, 10:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Someone please tell me the value of 3 betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

The value of 3 betting is that we have the best hand. So we're going to win the pot. So we want more bets in it. For when we win it. That's why we 3 bet.

Not raising here is a huge mistake. There are so many hands that we beat. Someone could be raising with a Q or even a 7. Or some random 2 pair. Please raise. Are you really that scared of a backdoor flush? It's just not very likely, especially with the turn action.

Greg J · #9 07-05-2005, 10:18 PM

just noticed it was back door -- you are right.

RiverTheNuts · #10 07-05-2005, 10:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (6 max, 10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
5 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, Button calls.

River: (9.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13.75 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the input... I get caught up in the moment too much... when someone pops me after a flush card comes I go into "party is rigged mode", grab my box of tissues, and call down... I didnt think a queen would raise this, but obviously it would... I figured given the betting that a queen popping this river would be about as likely as 2 spades were, so I viewed it as a pretty much neutral situation, and if he caps then the flush is out or we're chopping...

I 3 bet and he calls with Q straight or worse, I make 1 bet (50%)
I raise and he caps with KQ, I make zero bets (10%)
I raise and he caps with flush, I lose 2 bets (40%)

EV is around -.3 bets, no?

He needs to have spades only 1/2 as often as he has anything else to make this neutral EV, which I think the river raise is a strong indicator of alot of the time