NBA: you draft one player

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Here is the scenerio. Your goal is to win the NBA championship next year. You will be allowed to pick 1 player of your choosing, The rest of the team will be provided at random but will resemble the general make up of a current NBA roster, ie no super teams and no team of all scrubs.

Which 1 player gives you the best chance at winning a championship.

[pryor15]

Shaq

[Dan Rutter]

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Shaq

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Shaq

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My initial choice as well and if the question was for winning 1 game he would be my choice. However I think Shaq's possible dominance is not enough to overcome the injury concerns of an entire season as the gap between Shaq and #2 most dominant player is likely to be very small.

[pryor15]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Shaq

[/ QUOTE ]

My initial choice as well and if the question was for winning 1 game he would be my choice. However I think Shaq's possible dominance is not enough to overcome the injury concerns of an entire season as the gap between Shaq and #2 most dominant player is likely to be very small.

[/ QUOTE ]

he has a tendency to be much healtier come playoff time

[[censored]]

Basically what I am saying is this.

At his best let's assume that Shaq has a value rating 100 which is the highest in the league. However Shaq brings with him additional injury variance of an average player.

Thus his expected value actually looks something like this

Value * probability = EV
100 .60 60
75 .30 23
0 .10 0

Shaq's expected value = 83

I don't think the second best player with non additional injury concerns is a full 17% less dominant than Shaq.

[MoreWineII]

The answer is Duncan and I don't even think it's close.

Shaq? C'mon, maybe 5 years ago. He had a nice little supporting cast last year (and a bona-fide superstar with Wade) and still couldn't get it done. Hell, he couldn't even come out of the EAST for godsakes.

[sam h]

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The answer is Duncan and I don't even think it's close.

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I think it is extremely close between him Garnett and perhaps a few others. Duncan is hot right now after winning another Championship but it is impossible to know if other players like Garnett, Bryant, Iverson, Stoudamire would have had the same success in Duncan's role.

What about Duncan makes it such a clear decision for you?

[kyro]

Two years ago I would have said Shaq. He hasn't been healthy for a while now, though, and I just wouldn't trust him.

So I go with Tim Duncan, though Garnett would be my second choice, and it's close.