OUt of curiosity

tolbiny · #1 07-02-2005, 09:48 PM

What are the ods of a 1-1.5 bb/100 with a SD of around 16 running into a -700BB swing?

SheetWise · #2 07-03-2005, 12:43 AM

How can you know the deviation without the expectation? And in poker -- you can never have enough information to know the expectation.

SheetWise

pzhon · #3 07-03-2005, 02:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What are the ods of a 1-1.5 bb/100 with a SD of around 16 running into a -700BB swing?

[/ QUOTE ]
It will happen eventually with probability 1. I think you are probably more interested in the risk of ruin starting with a 700 BB bankroll.

r = exp(-2uB/sigma^2)

For 1 BB/100,
r = exp(-2 1 700/256) ~ 0.42%.

tolbiny · #4 07-03-2005, 09:19 AM

"And in poker -- you can never have enough information to know the expectation."

These are estimates as i have twice lost Poker tracker Databases to comp crashes.