Check analysis: call utg limp & button all-in w/ 99

[docodan]

I'd appreciate any comments, especially hand ranges...

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney ($10+1), Big Blind is t100 (7 handed) converter

SB (t565)
Hero (t595)
UTG (t1950)
MP1 (t755)
MP2 (t2520)
CO (t1050)
Button (t565)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls t100, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t565 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ?</font>.

My reads are worthless (I'm a newbie). Given his stack size, position, and blinds, I put the Button on any pocket pair, any ace, any two cards 10+.

Given UTG would be facing two all-ins, I assume his calling range would be reasonably tight, e.g. AA-JJ, AK, AQ, KQ, AJs.

If Hero folds the blind, ICM says .0715.

Hero wins heads-up against button's range 59.7%, and three-way 34.1%. ICM says equity after a heads-up win is .1735, and after a three-way win .221. Hero faces both players only 5.7% with that calling range for UTG. So I get .943 * .597 * .1735 + .057 * .341 * .221 := .1016.

This is a clear call, right?

[bkbluedevil]

Hmm even if you're reads suck its importent that you at least consider how much this guy has been pushing and maybe his prophecy numbers too.

Other things to consider would be if he's tricky or not. I just watched a conference Daniel N gave and he said the first thing he looks for when sizing up an oponent is whether or not they are honest. If hes a rock who bets only good hands you could be in trouble but if hes a slowplayer you're likely well ahead of his range.

I know this isn't the answer you're looking for so I'll say this. The fact that you only have 6BB makes in an easy call (calling is better than pushing if UTG is a thinker because it shows more streghth and really doesnt change his pot odds at all). You're very likely 60% or better against button's range.

[lastchance]

Yeah, I think it's clear enough where you really just shove you chips in the middle.

[xLukex]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I think it's clear enough where you really just shove you chips in the middle.

[/ QUOTE ]

For once we agree. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[suited_ace]

Easy call.