Why can't I beat 2/4?

handsome · #1 06-30-2005, 04:53 AM

I am on a 240bb downswing. I think the level is very soft. Preflop looseness mirrors .5/1, but there are a lot less LPP's and more aggression in general. I also find that a lot of donks like to wait until the turn to raise. That changes the way I play and I hate that [censored]. However, I DON'T think that my style has changed much from the one that beat .5/1, 1/2 and 1/2 6-max... so why am I losing so much? Between horrible bad beats and adjusting to the level, I have lost at most 150bb. So that leads me to believe that I am not playing well. Please take a lookie:

Graph:

Position stats:

Stats:

Besides my low W$SD% (due to massive suckouts) and my shitty blind defense, does anything stick out? I'm gonna give myself a couple of days to get focused. Then I will go back to the grind, one table at a time. In the meantime, any feedback would be appreciated.

Jgents · #2 06-30-2005, 05:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Besides my low W$SD% (due to massive suckouts) and my shitty blind defense, does anything stick out?

[/ QUOTE ]

The tiny 11k sample size definately sticks out.

jjacky · #3 06-30-2005, 05:09 AM

frankly, i don't really know. here are the differences to my stats (mine are pretty close to 'standard' afaik):
- i am more agressive on the flop and turn (might be just 'style'
- my results from the blinds are much better (.1 bb/hand in each blind). especially my VPIP from the small blind is much higher (close to 40%) in 2/4
- from the cutoff to buttom+3 my results are much better as well. no idea why (maybe agression, mentioned earlier). could be just luck.

the results from the other position and stats like VPIP, went to showdown and such are very similar.

dunno if it was helpful, but i tried my best

handsome · #4 06-30-2005, 05:10 AM

But do you see the obvious downward trend? I do NOT want to be this guy and find out that I'm a long term loser without making any adjustments at this level

jjacky · #5 06-30-2005, 05:12 AM

the sample size is not that great, but he is more than 2 SD away from a 2 BB win rate and 1 from break even (the second doesn't say much, thats true, but the first does).

aba20 · #6 06-30-2005, 05:27 AM

First off $2/$4 takes time to learn to beat. I was playing much lower limits and I won a big MTT and jumped up to $3/$6 and $2/$4 and got creamed. I then moved back down and moved up one level at a time and that really helped. What I am saying it takes alot longer than people realized to become a winning player even at these levels. What really strikes me as strange is the relation between your VPIP and W$@SD. Your VPIP is low which is ok, but your W$@SD should about 5-10% higher for that VPIP. Also your W$WSF is about 5% to low also. I think part of your problem could be staying with unpaired hands too long. I would closely look at your AK-AJ and KQ type hands to see if you are going to far without a pair against to many opponents. You might want to post some AK hands that you think you might have misplayed. I can't really think of what to tell you beyond that then keep on working at it and eventually things will start going up, but it could take longer than you think.

HajiShirazu · #7 06-30-2005, 08:52 AM

It looks like you're playing really well from the other positions, I especially like your CO/button aggression, but your blind numbers are horrible. I know it's a small sample size, but -.29 out of the BB is just bad and your SB of -.16 isn't much better. It looks like you're trapping yourself by taking too many marginal hands to showdown out of position. Look at your W$SD. However, it could just be running bad, you might just have picked up big hands out of there and had a bunch of suckouts.
Usually these numbers would result from defending with too many marginal hands but I don't see that from the stats.
Anyway I have always thought that PT stats were pretty stupid and hard to put any faith in until you get samples that are way larger than these, but my advice is still to review/post some of the weaker hands that you took to showdown from the blinds and ask yourself if they were worth calldowns.

QTip · #8 06-30-2005, 10:32 AM

It really looks like this is just the deck hitting you. I would expect to see some of your big hands being significantly lower winners than normal. Our stats are almost identical.

I wouldn't be concerned. If you still have the BR, keep playing. Otherwise, drop down and build it back up.

I've seen a better player than me go on a 300 bb downswing in the 2/4 game. It's just the way it can go.

No big deal. Keep your chin up and don't let it affect your play.

pleyya · #9 06-30-2005, 10:56 AM

Your stats look pretty good. What comes to my mind is table selection, find the loose ones. I assume you use GT+ or playview. I use PokerEdge aswell, makes table selection a little faster.

DavidC · #10 06-30-2005, 11:23 AM

If pf looseness is really the same as the 0.5/1 game, you should bring your vpip up (I guess this depends on how high the avg wsd is, though).

I'm curious, though... if you're thinking that these games are loose, what time are you playing? I've been having a hell of a time trying to find loose tables (see my AJo UTG post).

--Dave.