Getting Whipsawed with Trip Queens

[colgin]

Both opponents in this hand are mediocre. They have similar stats, something like 25/4.5/1.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: (4.33 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, BB calls, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: (3.66 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

River: (15.66 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 18.66 BB

[mr pink]

i think capping the turn would be a spew considering the bb check/3-bet there.

i probably play the river the same - going for an overcall - since i really don't know where i'm at with my hand at this point.

[MHarris]

I may end up getting ripped for this one, but I think you should fold the turn when it's 2 back to you. You're getting only 4.75:1 on the call with the possibility of it getting capped behind you, and you have a draw to a flush that could pretty easily be second best and outs to a boat/quads that may be occupied.

[soweak.]

[ QUOTE ]
I may end up getting ripped for this one, but I think you should fold the turn when it's 2 back to you. You're getting only 4.75:1 on the call with the possibility of it getting capped behind you, and you have a draw to a flush that could pretty easily be second best and outs to a boat/quads that may be occupied.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this, for the reason that both aggressive players sandbagged you on the flop and have now come to live on a good card for you. I would fold. You may be up against made hands or drawing slim against the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or KQ or AQ

[TripleH68]

Villains are attacking a pretty small pot on the turn.
BB is playing this like a set or made flush.

If you are behind and have four outs, you are not getting nearly good enough odds to continue. If we stretch and say you may have a shot at the flush you still are not getting odds to continue. I might fold this turn also.

Who considers isolation raising this hand here?
Do you need to be a spot or two closer to the button?
Does the less than 5% pfr of the limper bother you?

[bigalt]

[ QUOTE ]
I may end up getting ripped for this one, but I think you should fold the turn when it's 2 back to you. You're getting only 4.75:1 on the call with the possibility of it getting capped behind you, and you have a draw to a flush that could pretty easily be second best and outs to a boat/quads that may be occupied.

[/ QUOTE ]

how many of those outs do you think are occupied? i count 10 total if they're all clean, you'd have to discount 3 of them to make it not worth calling for the draw to the boat. and I think you'll get at least one or two BB extra should you hit.

though you don't have a proud flush, i suppose you have enough of one for the overcall on the river.

[bigalt]

[ QUOTE ]
Villains are attacking a pretty small pot on the turn.
BB is playing this like a set or made flush.

If you are behind and have four outs, you are not getting nearly good enough odds to continue.

[/ QUOTE ]

okay i'm confused. one queen, 3 jacks, 3 fives, 3 deuces?

if someone has a set that makes 8 outs?

[TripleH68]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Villains are attacking a pretty small pot on the turn.
BB is playing this like a set or made flush.

If you are behind and have four outs, you are not getting nearly good enough odds to continue.

[/ QUOTE ]

okay i'm confused. one queen, 3 jacks, 3 fives, 3 deuces?

if someone has a set that makes 8 outs?

[/ QUOTE ]

You are correct. (Tail btw my legs.)

Though I suppose we should also consider some of these outs may be to a split...

[Catt]

Wow, this hand sucks. Not the way you played it; not because it is uninteresting; but because of the fact that this turn action is so freaking weird that I think you're along for the ride thinking "WTF?" and just hoping for the best.

I don't think I do anything differently. Against a made flush on the turn, you still have 10 outs* to the boat; aganist a made boat, you still have 8 outs* to a boat that could be winning, losing, or chopping or winning quads; against a better top set, you have 3 outs to the winner and 6 outs to a chop; and of course there's a decent chance you're ahead (not great, but not unthinkable - this may be controversial). I don't think I could fold this, and I'm skeptical that folding on the turn could be the right play (though I'm not sure about this).

The river makes this even weirder; I also overcall with the 3rd nut flush (and expect a boat would bet or raise somewhere on this river).

Tough hand. And nice hand. (I think . . . someone correct me?).



* I recognize that some of these outs may indeed be held by others as MHarris noted; but I'm not going to discount them more than fractionally for odds decisions in this post but may do some math later since this hand is pretty interesting, if not very common.

[colgin]

[ QUOTE ]
i think capping the turn would be a spew considering the bb check/3-bet there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never considered capping the turn. Against these players I am almost 100% certain that I am behind at this point.