Running bad or playing badly?

[Clarkmeister]

The good Dr. wrote an article in CardPlayer and I think it is a very important one. Part 1 was published in the most recent CP and I assume Part 2 will be forthcoming in the next issue. I think it is an important topic because not only does it raise some interesting issues, it reminds me of one of my biggest disagreements with the "accepted forum wisdom" for lack of a better phrase.

First, let me say that for novice players, it is very instructive to look at results to determing whether they are playing well or not. Worrying about luck at all is IMO counterproductive. I am not talking about novice players in this post. I am talking about proven long term winners who understand the game.

I think that most people underestimate just how much luck there is in this game. I look for errors in my play from both my winning and my losing sessions. In the past, there have been winning sessions where I played abysmally. As well as losing sessions where I played my absolute best poker. I think part of being a winning player is recognizing exactly when luck did have a significant impact on your day, either positive or negative. And the fact of the matter is that luck does have a huge impact on every session you play.

Quite frankly, whenever I see someone post some whiny "I can't beat these bad players lately" post, I cringe. But not as much as I cringe when I see someone respond with "you are obviously playing poorly, blaming the results on luck is wrong, figure out where you are making your mistakes".

Someone who is a .5BB/hr winner (not bad in a 20 or 30 mid limit game) with an 8SD has a 21% chance each and every session that he is about to embark on a 100BB losing streak. For a .75BB/hr winner that % is still a rather large 9.6%.

Running bad is a fact of life and it occurs to everybody.

To tell someone that "its all your fault", especially if they have a track record of success, is IMO very likely to be faulty advice.

For a winning player who can effectively and impartially judge his/her play, I think it is counterproductive to assume that "I must be playing badly" and to start adjusting their game. In fact, I suspect that this "loss of self" can lead to prolonging losing streaks to the point where you actually do start playing bad.

When Dr. Alan says "bad beats don't matter much", in the loooong run he is absoultely correct. However, in the short term they can be devastating. If you are playing in some nice juicy games, losing 4 or 5 pots that you "should" have won when you have the field drawing to say 4 or 6 cards collectively, has a devastating impact on your performance. Losing five 15BB pots over 2-3 sessons when you "should have" won 4 of those 5 has a sixty (60) BB impact on your bottom line. When you are in the midst of a 100+ BB downswing, this is incredibly significant, particularly if that player has not been involved in many pots due to a poor run of starting hands. If ones analysis concludes that one did not play poorly in those hands, or in any other hands, then simply saying "you are in denial" is both incorrect and likely counterproductive. I see players trying to tinker with their game, and it makes things worse more often than it helps.

I think that there is some psychology going on with the "you are playing bad" camp as well. I think the pain of running bad can be so damaging that most people simply shut out the memory. This is eased by saying "see, I'm winning again, I was just playing badly and once I started playing better I turned it around". We both bury the painful memory, and ego boost ourselves by taking all the credit for the turnaround. I think this type of subconscious activity is harmful in that it encourages the corrolary thought that "I must be playing well because I am winning." Yet another potentially harmful thought process.

If people came to a greater understanding of the types of swings that are normal over a prolonged period in this game, they would take less credit for the upswings and less blame for the downswings. I think the truly successful player will be the one who understands exactly when it really is bad luck causing his bad run, and when it is poor play.

Poor play certainly can cause poor results. But to assume so before critically analzying the actual play in question is incorrect.

[Bob T.]

This is the second post you made this week, that I had to print out, and put in my notebook.

Thanks for all your contributions.

Good luck,
play well,

Bob T.

[Mike Gallo]

Dave,

Great post!!

I felt victimized by bad beats when I first started playing. I had read Theory of Poker and other books, however I hadnt read Gambling Theory.

Once I read that, I realized that bad beats were inevitable and part of the game. Losing with pocket aces didnt effect me as much. I see a lot of players lose with good cards, and as a result start playing them differently. Example limping with AK instead of raising or limping with AA or KK.

Sometimes, I must confess some of my winning do come from "lucky" catches. However if I have 15 outs, how lucky am I ? 1 out of 3 cards helps me, so I don't know if I would call it lucky, however my opponents might.

Great post.

Michael

[oddjob]

this is an excellend post. just wanted to let you know. i know personally, i am starting to analyze my playing in each session. there are times that i do run bad, and it gets frustrating, but i am also able to identify when i am playing poorly. and this is helping me a lot. i must say you, dynasty and others here have helped me immensly with the advice (sometimes blunt as hell, heh) you offer.

my bankroll is very thankful

[sucka]

great post Clark. I really enjoyed reading that.

I hope we get the chance to hook up when I'm down in early April. Would love to meet up for some friendly gaming and perhaps enjoy a meal later and talk some shop.

[bernie]

great post...

i put a nice long response/addition to it, but the combo of my sh*tty ISP and this forum f*cking up with loading, which seems to be a regular occurence lately....it didnt post it.

not sure who to blame...but im tired of this crap

cant wait for a cable connection

i hope the novices read it....

b

[J.A.Sucker]

Clark,

A great post that people really need to think about. However, the whole bad swings vs bad play argument works both ways. The thing about gambling games is that many people really cannot separate what's skill and what's luck. For example, there is a professional poker player here in San Jose that I consider to be the BEST limit player that I've come across, but many players think that he's a guy who's only "running good" and that he should "wait until the cards break even." Even some good players (who beat the midlimit games for a decent rate) say these things. However, I have no doubt that he's beating the hell out of the games through his ability to adapt and react to the game - it's truly a work of art to watch, as long as I'm not in the hand [img]/forums/images/icons/wink.gif[/img]

I believe poker skill is like pornography - it's tough to describe it, but you know it when you see it. The beautiful thing about poker is that few CAN see it, and this is why the games are, and will continue to be good. What other game than poker can you play with the same guys, day in and day out, and continue to have the best of them, but they think that they actually have the best of it? At the same time, as you point out, you can go for a long time and not feel like you have the best of it, when you actually do. The question is how does one reconcile these two conflicting characteristics that actually make poker a great game? I believe that a truly good or great player is able to see what makes a great poker play or player, and doesn't look at results, but only the decision. Going for that extra bet when you feel it is the highest EV situation is what's correct, whether you win the pot or not. The only thing in your post that I have some caution about was when you talked about bad beats against large fields of players. You wrote "If you are playing in some nice juicy games, losing 4 or 5 pots that you "should" have won when you have the field drawing to say 4 or 6 cards collectively, has a devastating impact on your performance." These situations are few and far between in poker; you seldom have the field drawing this dead, and I know that you realize this. However, many people beat themselves up over "bad beats" when they see some dude backdoor into a hand that beats them. What they don't see are the hands that didn't "make it," but if they were to know all those hands and to look at the remaining cards in the deck, these apparent nut situations are not the lock that our hero thinks they are.

I've rambled on enough, and as always, these are just my opinions, but I'm Just Another Sucker.

[Al Schoonmaker]

Clarkmeister,

Thank you for an excellent post. I always learn something from you.
I agree wholeheartedly that luck plays a huge role in the short term. However, I also believe that people grossly overestimate its impact for any period longer than a few weeks.The term "running bad" usually means for a period at least that long.
When I hear someone say that he has been running bad for six months or longer, I always have extreme doubts. He is almost certainly doing something wrong. In fact, it is almost impossible to lose consistently without playing badly. After a few days or weeks of "bad luck," nearly everyone loses their edge, becoming too timid or too aggressive or too something else.
Can purely bad luck cause a six month or longer losing streak? Of course, it can, but the odds against it are about a billion to one.
However, you are absolutely correct that it is a mistake to assume that you are playing badly ONLY because of a losing streak.
The most important issue you raised is the need to analyze our play objectively. WHY did we get the results (either good or bad)? All of us have played badly and won, and played well and lost.
The natural tendency for most people -- certainly including me -- is to believe that our skill caused our wins, but bad luck caused our losses.
That error occurs far more often than the opposite one. You are correct that it is a mistake to assume "I must be playing badly" ONLY because of a losing streak. But it is a far greater mistake to assume that only bad luck caused recent losses.
I was trying to get people to be tougher on themselves, to avoid the natural tendency to blame bad luck.
Is it a mistake to tinker with a winning strategy just because of a brief losing streak? Yes.
But it is a good idea to examine your game all the time, and blaming bad luck prevents that analysis.
Part II of the series will be in the issue after the next one. I'm in only every other issue. It takes the position that you can play in the same game that you beat for years, have a long losing streak, but still not be "running bad."You may not like it, but I think you'll find that some of the points are worth considering.
Thanks again for an excellent post. Where are you playing these days?
Please you send me a private message so we can get together. Also, why don't you come to our poker discussion group? It's much larger and more serious now. I'm sure you'd love it.
Regards,
Al

[bernie]

"Can purely bad luck cause a six month or longer losing streak?"

this is where i get a little 'cringy' as clark put it...

ive seen many posters say theyre having a 6 month streak, when in reality, they only play casually compared to near full time players....

'ive been losing for 6 months (6 mos = 300 hours)'

theyre at a misconception....their streak shouldnt be looked at calendularly (new word?) but hourly.

luck should be the last thing one rests on when looking into the results of their game. but it does affect outcomes much more than many beginners really give credit for....some beginners look so hard for something wrong in their game that they create it themselves. when their game was fine in the first place...

people should be tough on themselves. otherwise, if they stop looking into their own games, and take an easy way out, they stop growing as a player.

how often do you see posts on here where a player is on a bad run, but still knows that theyre playing well? i remember when i put a post on here about my vegas session which i lost....one responder said it was the first good bad beat session he'd read.

although, i think posting some bad streak stuff is therapeutic as many responders will help one realize that they arent the only one whos gone through it. which, when in a streak, that feeling does emerge.

love this topic and could (did) write a nice long response/addition, but after last time, im not typing that much just to have it go blank again....lolol

have a good one

b

[Vehn]

People winning tend to underestimate the effect of luck. People losing tend to overestimate. There you go without all those cumbersome words.