Is this river a value bet?

[madscout]

SB is 54/0/1.8 (35 hands)
UTG+1 is 45/2/.4 (47 hands)

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

The blinds are passive preflop... I limp this

Flop: (6 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, Hero calls.

I realize this is a borderline loose peel with 5 dirtied outs.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (10.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero...

I don't think either player is capable of a bluff check-raise on the river FWIW.

[aK13]

Yes.

[jba]

Yes, I think a value bet is in order here. These players are loose and passive, and could be holding any number of hands, many of which are not flushes. I think if one of them hit their flush they would likely donk bet here, afraid you'll check through the flush.

[Argus]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
I don't think either player is capable of a bluff check-raise on the river FWIW.

[/ QUOTE ]
You've answered your own question. If you can confidently fold to a check/raise then yes this is a value bet. There are certainly hands to call you that you beat: any pair of nines or sevens, or even a rare worse two pair from SB. You also don't have to risk two bets being check/raised, so the EV of betting is higher still. SB, though passive, didn't wake up on the flush draw so I don't think you need to be as scared of the turn donkbet.

I don't know why you say the flop all is marginal; I count 5.5 clean outs (4 non-club 7s and 5s, and a backdoor flush). Getting 8:1 and some implied odds I like it.

[brettbrettr]

Nice hand. Yes, you should bet this river.

[sy_or_bust]

Definitely bet/fold. SB usually has a pair, and UTG+1 is a donk who will see the river with many hands here, so go for it.

[madscout]

[ QUOTE ]
You've answered your own question.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unfortunately I didn't ask myself this question until after I checked. I promise the entire 2+2 community that I will bet this river next time.

~mad