#1
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Odds question
Any comments as to when I should fold are welcomed (when CO 3 bets the turn is the earliest I can see myself dropping this normally although I was feeling stubborn and stupid [as usual]), but my major question is what are the odds of three players having pocket pairs and all flopping a set?
PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls. Flop: (9.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 caps</font>, Hero calls, CO calls. Turn: (9.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls. River: (16.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, UTG+2 calls. Final Pot: 19.75 BB Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF"> UTG+2 has 7h 7s (three of a kind, sevens). Hero has 3c 3s (three of a kind, threes). CO has Jh Jc (three of a kind, jacks). Outcome: CO wins 19.75 BB. </font> |
#2
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Re: Odds question
Put simply I'm not folding. Specially since this is 1/2 which belongs in micro by the way but With little straight and no flush possibilites i am not letting this go. I think a call down is in order once the 3 bet hits on the turn. Your river bet is pointless and will not accomplish anything. I think your lucky that it did not end up costing you another BB on that river.
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#3
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Re: Odds question
I'm pretty sure it was Lee Jones who said you are probably OK if you never fold a set - and he's considered weak/tight by most here.
I think you played this fine all the way to the river bet, and I certainly wouldn't be folding anywhere. Welcome to the forums. |
#4
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Re: Odds question
[ QUOTE ]
but my major question is what are the odds of three players having pocket pairs and all flopping a set? [/ QUOTE ] I get 2/3795, or .000527 (these are the odds for all three hitting a set on the flop, assuming they already have the pocket pairs) |
#5
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Re: Odds question
I'll be approximate because the slight adjustment effects of knowing one extra card and so forth are not that important (though interesting if someone wants to undertake the calculation).
It's about 1 in 17 that any given player has a pocket pair; as you start conditioning this on the fact that others have pairs it goes up slightly, but not much. Given we know 6 cards now, their are 46 cards outstanding and the probability of each person hitting their cards on A SPECIFIC point in the flop (2nd card on the flop, etc) is 2/46= 1/23. Since there are six orderings of the cards on the flop, the odds they all flop sets is ~6*(1/23)^3. So the probability is in the neighborhood of (again, this is not exact, but very close): 6*/(23*17)^3 which needless to say is a very small number. |
#6
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Re: Odds question
Rounded we're talking .0000001, or 1 in 10 million-ish.
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#7
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Re: Odds question
Apologies for posting in the wrong forum: I shall make sure I post in the right place in future. Thank you for the replies and the welcome [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
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