$109s - AKs Bubble Fold (this one hurt)

[Unarmed]

Villain appears solid and hasn't been stealing.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) converter

BB (t3225)
UTG (t3235)
MP (t1755)
Button (t435)
Hero (t1350)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t700</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t1000

[wiggs73]

Not sure how much I like this one. You need to double up sooner rather than later, as you don't have much folding equity over the two stacks to your left. Unless you're SURE he has AA or KK, I would push and take my chances against a pair.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain appears solid and hasn't been stealing.



[/ QUOTE ]

This seems contradictory to me. Regardless, I'm not folding this ever here. If he's solid at all, he's raising with a lot less than AA/KK. This is such an easy push for me, especially as the 4th stack.

[liucipher]

I don't question your play, just wondering if you could explain because I think I'm missing something:

1.) it's still bubble + 1, so even after short-stack exits you're still going to have difficulties finishing ITM w/ your smallish stack

2.) my guess w/o running Poker Stove is your hand is ~50% against whatever Villain has. Maybe a little less, but you're getting an overlay for 22% of your stack.

Combining those two, it would make me lean towards taking the coin flip to move solidly into second place &lt;300 chips behind leader. I'm also a fish and can't lay down AKs.

I must be missing something? Maybe an ICM analysis?

[The Yugoslavian]

1. This isn't the bubble.
2. You will have 6 BBs if you fold (4 M for those keepin' track at home) which won't allow very good FE vs. the two bigger stacks (and if you can't make a move later this orbit, then you're starting to really feel the pain)
3. A big stack has just made a raise that announces he's somewhat interested in his hand but wants to allow himself a fold if BB comes over him (IMO of course...this raise size could be interpreted I guess as him wanting action but I don't think so).
4. You probably don't have enough chips to steal your way ITM here....you either will have to let other stacks bust each other or actually get a hold on a nice bit of chips.

I elect coming over the top. I would put villian on 55+,A8+,KJ+ - possibly more. I think you'll find AK is *very* favorable vs. that sort of range.

What kind of range of hands do you see played here in the $109s by a big stack? I think you're at least 60/40 (and as good as 65/35 I'd say) to double up here (and likely better). At this point I don't think I'm passing that edge up. Oh, and you probably have like 3% FE here to boot! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Yugoslav

[Unarmed]

Yes it's probably an awful fold. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
He hadn't been very active and I figured he'd need a solid hand to come in with UTG. Blah.

[Unarmed]

Give me a range and I'll ICM it for you.
Against 66+, AJo I need JJ+.
This assumes zero FE.

[kamrann]

I don't think I'd fold it, but there is now way he is anywhere close to 65:35 here. Look at the odds of 23 v AK, then you may want to reconsider. Play around with Pokerstove and I imagine it'd be difficult to come up with a reasonable range for the raiser where you're 60:40 even.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think I'd fold it, but there is now way he is anywhere close to 65:35 here. Look at the odds of 23 v AK, then you may want to reconsider. Play around with Pokerstove and I imagine it'd be difficult to come up with a reasonable range for the raiser where you're 60:40 even.

[/ QUOTE ]

How about *you* play around with Pokerstove.

Anyway, vs. certain opponents who over value aces, I certainly *do* think you can have a fairly close to 65:35 edge here (65/35 is the very uppermost of that range I will admit but that was basically what I was saying, I hope). AKs vs. any ace, any pair and KQ is ~64/36....but a more likely range could be something like 55+,A6+,KT+ which is also ~64/36.

I dunno, those seem fairly reasonable but I'm certainly not counting on villian to have those ranges there. If UTG was shorter then I'd be more hesitant...but he's got plenty of chips and probably is looking at a hand he feels is good at a five handed table (which coverse quite a few hands).

I'd love to discuss this more though, b/c I often make horrible folds here and/or horrible pushes in these exact situations b/c my brain stops working as soon as I play poker.

Yugoslav

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
Give me a range and I'll ICM it for you.
Against 66+, AJo I need JJ+.
This assumes zero FE.

[/ QUOTE ]

That range seems quite tight to me. What has villian showed so far? He must have shown something....what's the 'feel' you have for him besides 'he hasn't been stealing.'

To many players, raising t700 there 5 handed with A6o or KTo isn't stealing, it's just playing a hand that is 'good.' Stealing would be more like raising 94o there or something.

Yugoslav