Stealing the blinds

RedZak · #1 06-27-2005, 05:00 PM

Villain here is 65% vpip, 6% pfr, 6.5 af.

How's this look? When I was 3-bet on the turn I figured I was behind but couldnt fold for one bet on the river.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
6 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB 3-bets, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero calls.

River: (12.25 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.25 BB

SeaEagle · #2 06-27-2005, 05:08 PM

I think your turn raise is spewing. You're likely behind and he's never folding here.

Is the 6.5af post-flop aggression? Over a lot of hands? I guess I'd call the river bet since a 6.5 aggression player is bluffing more than the 8% of the time you need to make a profitable call. Against virtually all other opponents, I think you can safely fold the river.

sy_or_bust · #3 06-27-2005, 06:37 PM

This is really spewing. If he 3-bets you on the flop, it's time to hit the brakes. This player doesn't raise much before the flop - he may be loose defending, but it's one thing to consider. Call the turn (never raise - you fold pure bluffs and get 3-bet when you're crushed. i.e. your hand). Call the river against this opponent, but fold in your line.

mtdoak · #4 06-27-2005, 06:42 PM

Slow down but don't fold. You've picked up a big draw on the turn....why charge yourself to draw? Call Call Call.

Erik W · #5 06-27-2005, 06:48 PM

I'd call it down with no raises anywhere.
If he checks, bet.

IF he has nothing your raises will just chase him off the hand, you'd want him to be in if he's bluffing.

If he has a better hand you wan't get rid of him anyway.

Nick C · #6 06-27-2005, 07:07 PM

The flop bet by a 6.5 postflop agggression guy, by itself, doesn't concern me, especially since it could just be an auto-bet.

However, once we take Villain's PFR percentage into account (it's not very high), then I think we're in some trouble against his range, unless he suspected a steal and is defending his blind aggressively.

Against many hands that he could have (such as AA-TT, AQ, and KQ), you're drawing. Against AK/AJ you're ahead, but not by much. (Edit: And if by some chance he's suited in diamonds with those hands, you're an underdog at this point.) The hands you're well ahead of are 88-99 and 22-66 and something like A9. (To include some of these hands, and mostly this means the ones you're beating, we do have to take the steal situation into account and broaden Villain's range.)

Postflop, I'd probably just call the whole way, actually, and bet if checked to.

The river card is kind of unfortunate, since there aren't a whole lot of hands you're beating anymore, but, given the previous action, I think the chances are good you were behind already anyway.