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#1
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Am I crazy for thinking a river call is +EV?
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is MP1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $3. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero (poster) raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls. Flop: (6 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls. Turn: (5 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> SB checks, Hero checks. River: (5 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls. |
#2
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1 in 6 times he doesn't have a heart? I would call, but it's just instinct.
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#3
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[ QUOTE ]
Am I crazy for thinking a river call is +EV? [/ QUOTE ] No. Your opponent could very well be bluffing and if he is you have him beat. As long as your opponent is bluffing at least 15% (EDIT: just double checked with my calculater and it's 17%) of the time this is a good call. However, I do think you made one mistake in this hand. Unless your opponent is a calling station you have a very good chance of taking down the pot on the turn with a bet. When you raise the flop in late position, your opponent is probably putting you on either a good pair or a flush draw. The 3rd heart is a scare card, and he is likely to fold marginal pairs and straight draws, because he fears you either have a flush or a hand strong enough that you're not scared by it. Your opponent may also have a flush, and if this is the case you can safely fold to his check/raise. |
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