Daily Hand Post: sick river decision with a full house

jason_t · #1 06-26-2005, 04:41 AM

Villain is 31/2.5/.9 after 2073 hands.

I asked three different people over AIM for their opinion on this hand; they all gave different opinions.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: I am MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls, I raise, 2 folds, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 bets, I raise, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 checks, I bet, MP1 calls.

River: (8 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 bets, I....

Nick C · #2 06-26-2005, 04:42 AM

I'd call, expecting to lose.

partygirluk · #3 06-26-2005, 04:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]

MP1 bets, I....

[/ QUOTE ]

Vomit.

Malachii · #4 06-26-2005, 04:45 AM

Cry and call. He has JT or a busted flush draw here 10% of the time...

toss · #5 06-26-2005, 04:46 AM

Yuck nasty runner runner. The .9 aggro factor makes me think that its highly likely that we lose here. Whats more is that he donkbet the river. Yuck. I slowly fold.

thirddan · #6 06-26-2005, 04:48 AM

i don't think you will see the group of hands you suggest anywhere near 10% of the time...this guy just seems too passive to take a shot with a missed draw, unless he was going for nut flush and has A hi...

more likely hands (that we beat) are a 7/Q or A hi...

edit: after looking at the hand again i would say you are pretty [censored]...he is unlikely to lead the flop with only a Q/7/flush draw i think (although a flush draw is the most likely of those hands to lead the flop, not everyone thinks that a c/r is better and many will lead right into the PFR with a flush draw here)...even a passive player will put in a raise on the turn with trip sevens or Q7...bleh, i still say call, im not capable of folding boats for one bet on the river...

i think you should just call, unless you can raise and fold to a 3bet which kinda sucks cuz you can just call and showdown...

jason_t · #7 06-26-2005, 04:49 AM

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Cry and call. He has JT or a busted flush draw here 10% of the time...

[/ QUOTE ]

Is a flush draw betting into the preflop raiser?

partygirluk · #8 06-26-2005, 04:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Cry and call. He has JT or a busted flush draw here 10% of the time...

[/ QUOTE ]

Is a flush draw betting into the preflop raiser?

[/ QUOTE ]

People do this all the time.

partygirluk · #9 06-26-2005, 05:03 AM

Raising and folding to a 3 bet is pretty bad here. You only beat a bluff and he is either gonna fold or 3-bet (rare) with the bluff. If he folds you might as well have called, and if 3 bets you have wasted 2BB and lost yourself a big pot. He doesn't have a 7 here, as a 7 c/r the turn. This guy isn't too loose either, so that makes a 7 even more unlikely. Hard to see him playing a Queen like this, and there is only 1 Queen out. Not impossible, but very very unlikely.

einbert · #10 06-26-2005, 05:40 AM

I would call. It's very hard to say his exact hand range, but I'd say that he will have and be betting something with no showdown value or a seven at all more than 1/9 times.