Opponent Modeling

[CallMeIshmael]

Im fidling around with writing my own software to help analyze SnG situations.

Part of this is ranking the chances an opponent calls with a certain hand.

I've come up with the following top 25 hands for HU/3-way all in preflop situations. Note: these are not the top 25 best hands, they are the top 25 hands that you expect your AVERAGE OPPONENT (party) to have.

What do you guys think? (note, I have very little experience in SnGs, so Im probably way off)

AA
KK
QQ
JJ
TT
AKs
AKo
AQs
AJs
99
AQo
AJo
88
ATs
KQs
77
66
A9s
ATo
KQo
KJs
A8s
55
A9o
KJo


(Im not looking so much for small differences, but more for glaring problems. Sorry for the newb question)

[Luminous Mist]

I hope Eastbay is in a good mood when he reads this.

Luminous

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
I hope Eastbay is in a good mood when he reads this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did I break a rule or something? (I never post/lurk in this forum)

FWIW, I've purchased his software, and Im intending to use what I make for only personal use.

[microbet]

You didn't break any rules and I don't think Eastbay will give you a hard time. It is just that your post is pretty vague. I think the problem of average calling and pushing standards is very interesting and I'm going to start a project on that question pretty soon myself.

As far as what are the best hands against the average calling range, you have put the cart before the horse. First we need to know the calling hands, then we can figure the best hands against them.

Also, there are some more detailed and exhaustive lists of how hands fair versus typical-seeming hand ranges. I don't know exactly where, try the search function on this site and on the internet in general.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
It is just that your post is pretty vague

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I actually gave the wrong impression of what I was asking. I was rushing out the door when I wrote it [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

Im not looking at any frequencies of calling, or anything relies on what exactly villian thinks you're holding.

Let me rephrase it:

If somehow, you knew for a fact that an opponent would only call with 25 of the 169 hands, what would those 25 be?

[microbet]

First off, that's a heck of an avatar.

You would need to study the data to really make any claims about what the average player considers the best 25 calling hands, but my impression would be that people on averaage overvalue small pocket pairs.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
First off, that's a heck of an avatar.

[/ QUOTE ]

ty... the avatar/location/title are the result of a lost bet.

[ QUOTE ]
but my impression would be that people on averaage overvalue small pocket pairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is good. tyvm.

[eastbay]

Find the Sklansky-Karlson hand ranking. That's probably as good a ranking to use as any.

eastbay

[lacky]

or, instead of re-inventing the wheel, read all of eastbays posts.

Steve

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
or, instead of re-inventing the wheel, read all of eastbays posts.

[/ QUOTE ]

To be honest, I find it interesting that given the two hypotheses:

1) I am looking to do something specific that I havent found in commercial software (note: I have even said in this thread that I own easybay's software)

2) Am taking the time out of my life to work on something redundant


You feel 2) is more likely than 1)