Why push any 2?

[Matt R.]

I was observing a $200+15 just now, and this hand came up. I knew the original raiser was pushing any 2 in this scenario, and this is a $200+15, so let's assume that everyone left at the table also knows this. My general question is, what are the merits to pushing any 2 here versus folding. This is why I ask: If your opponents know you're pushing any 2, then they all, especially the short stack, should have a much wider calling range (in fact, I would think that SS should call with anything that is slightly better than 50:50 vs. a random hand since he is so low on chips and fold equity). The problem for me, and why I believe this may NOT be a push any 2 situation, is that if you push and everyone folds you increase your stack by 600 chips. If you push and are called, you're probably way behind if you're pushing trash (random doesn't necessarily mean bad, so I'm assuming trash cards here). You're going to lose most of these situations, and will be in bad shape at 1960 in chips if SS calls (less if someone else does). You obviously have to include situations where you call and win, and that will give you more than 50% of the chips in play.

So, my question is, why don't you just push with *marginally* good hands here -- hands that figure to have at least a modicum of success vs. everyone's (SS's in particular) calling range. Given that you are the biggest stack, I feel like there is at least some merit to waiting here and not putting most of your chips at risk with a hand like 72o (or 96o, in this case).

PS -- I wanted to edit out the names, but the hand converter apparently doesn't work if you aren't in the hand. Changing the names is pretty tedious as well, and I figured who was in the hand may help spark discussion on this.



***** Hand History for Game 2257106509 *****
400/800 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 13371939) - Fri Jun 24 18:30:05 EDT 2005
Table Table 17029 (Real Money) -- Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 3: Gigabet (3440)
Seat 5: Kirill137 (2210)
Seat 7: Danyonsgrmpa (1480)
Seat 8: BENNO_B (2870)
Danyonsgrmpa posts small blind (200)
BENNO_B posts big blind (400)
** Dealing down cards **
Gigabet raises (3440) to 3440
Gigabet is all-In.
Kirill137 folds.
Danyonsgrmpa calls (1280)
Danyonsgrmpa is all-In.
BENNO_B folds.
Creating Main Pot with $3360 with Danyonsgrmpa
Creating Side Pot 1 with $1960 with Gigabet
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 2h, Kd, 4s ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Ks ]
** Dealing River ** : [ As ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: 3360 | Side Pot 1: 1960
Board: [ 2h Kd 4s Ks As ]
Gigabet balance 1960, bet 3440, collected 1960, lost -1480 [ 9s 6h ] [ a pair of kings -- As,Kd,Ks,9s,6h ]
Kirill137 balance 2210, didn't bet (folded)
Danyonsgrmpa balance 3360, bet 1480, collected 3360, net +1880 [ Tc Ah ] [ two pairs, aces and kings -- Ah,As,Kd,Ks,Tc ]

[pergesu]

Well as I understand it, even if your opponents loosen up considerably, they still don't pick up a callable hand often enough to hurt you. When they do call, your hand still has a shot at winning.

It's all based off of ICM, and there are plenty of threads around here describing how to use ICM to determine whether you should push any two. Whether you choose to use ICM principles in making your decisions is all up to you.

edit: Download Sit n Go Power Tools and go through the Blindstealing 101 article. It explains it way better than I could.

[Nick B.]

Because you are getting a very nice overlay. Can't go bust and aren't going to be crippled by any of the stacks. If you do get action it will be by the smallest stack. If you don't win that 600 in chips, it is going to go to one of your opponents, and that is a significant percentage of the chips in play.

[Matt R.]

This makes sense. I really need to actually look at ICM and try it out -- I've sort of been "eyeballing" it, I guess you'd say, in determining a push any two situation. I've thought that I could estimate these things pretty accurately, but if this is a clear-cut push any two scenario, I'm probably quite a bit off.

[Matt R.]

[ QUOTE ]
If you don't win that 600 in chips, it is going to go to one of your opponents

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. I think I overlooked this when originally thinking about my argument. This makes it quite a bit more clear to me.

[Pitcher]

Hi Matt,

It is important to understand the concept of ICM and "pushing with any 2", but this is specific instance was NOT a push any two situation. This is not in any way meant to criticize Gigabet because most consider him the best SNG player out there, but from this position this push is incorrect unless you assume that all your opponents calling standards are tight...(99+, AQ+) which is highly unlikely in a $215 SNG. In fact, against this opponent, my calling standard are VERY wide (any A, any K, any Pair, Q9+ and J10) so this is a bad investment in the long run. To make matters worse, even if all the players were playing tight, this is a breakeven situation at best.

Regardless, it is important to understand the concept behind this in order to improve and successfully play at the higher levels.

Pitcher

[pokerlaw]

[ QUOTE ]
If your opponents know you're pushing any 2, then they all, especially the short stack, should have a much wider calling range (in fact, I would think that SS should call with anything that is slightly better than 50:50 vs. a random hand since he is so low on chips and fold equity).

[/ QUOTE ]

Look at the payout structure. Next one to leave gets nothing - and the big stack will still be around if he loses.

[flyingmoose]

[ QUOTE ]

Look at the payout structure. Next one to leave gets nothing - and the big stack will still be around if he loses.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this pretty much sums it up. Only the shortstack would call with a hand as vulnerable as A10. Benno probably isn't calling without aces.

[deathpotato]

[ QUOTE ]
Benno probably isn't calling without aces.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not true at all, short stack doesn't have 1BB or something, he has 3.5BB and is entirely in the running. Folding KK here would be unbelievably bad. I would call TT+, AK here, and that's playing it safe - assuming Giga is being unusually tight in pushing (i.e. tighter than he was in this case).

[Pitcher]

Hi Flying,

[ QUOTE ]
I think this pretty much sums it up. Only the shortstack would call with a hand as vulnerable as A10. Benno probably isn't calling without aces.


[/ QUOTE ]

Not to quibble, but I don't agree with that assessment at all. The raiser is UTG, 3 players behind. I am pretty sure that 2 of the 3 will call with anything reasonable...and the SB is likely to call with even less than A-10.

Pitcher