Help me with this EV problem. AKs 3 way pot (X-post from MTT)

[renodoc]

For you math inclined folks, please critique, point out my errors, etc. Thanks.


BB= maniac with huge stack who has knocked out two people with trash.
EP and MP are limpers
I have about 1600
Button fairly tight with about 750.

Blinds 25-50

Two limpers to me.

I raise with AKs to 250. (pot 425)

Button raises all-in to 750. (pot 1175)

BB re raises essentially all-in (main pot 1925, uncalled sidepot 850)

Limpers fold.

I can now fold or call. If I call, main pot will be 2425 and side pot 1700

If I put Button on AA-88, and maybe AK-AQ, and maniac on any two cards, what is my EV of calling?

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Side pot:

I think the chances of maniac having AA or KK is extremely low.

So just on a purely random distribution:

AA or KK: 0.45% He is ahead 8-1 on AA and 7-3 on KK
Pair QQ or lower: about 5% He is ahead about 55-45 on these.

any other hand I am ahead of or tied with. I would put the rest of these hands at somewhere between 50-50 and 70-30 in my favor. I would say average 65%. (not sure if this is correct though) If he has a hand like A7 or Kx I actually have him dominated over 70%.

Unpaired hands 94% win 65% = 61% win side pot.
Pair: 5% win 45% = 2 % win
AA/KK 0.5% win 20% = 0.1% win

Total percentage of winning side pot is at least 63%.

Main pot:

I think this is straightforward to assume button has either a big pair or a small pair.

Big pair I lose most of the time.

Small pair I flip. 45%.

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So if I fold, I have 1350 in chips, below average but perfectly fine for this stage of the tourney.

If I call, I have about 40% or so of winning everything and having 4125 and can bully the table.
About another 25% of losing the main pot and winning the side pot and having 1700 (where I was)
And 35% chance of busting out.