Best Strategy??

[drako]

I had nursed $160 up to $432 in 2-4 pot-limit omaha. As BB I held 10-9h, 8-8. I called an early $4 raise, There were 5 players remaining in the $42 pot. The flop was 8-6h, 5s. If I count hearts, 7s, and pair cards, I thought I would have a min. of 13 & a max. of 19 outs. I bet the pot and was raised the pot by the early raiser. We ended up heads-up, all in. The early raiser had 9-7s, 9-6c. The turn, 3d and river, Ac did not help. I wondered about my play. Would I have wondered if I had won?
I thought I was a strong favorite. Was I a strong or slight favorite? Was the hand played properly by me? By my opponent? How do I estimate probability of success knowing only my hand and the flop? How do I calculate probably of success after knowing my opponent's hand?





3

[Lurker]

http://www.twodimes.net/poker has a hand analyzer for several poker games. Looks like you were a 2-1 favorite.

Here are the numbers for this hand:
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 5s 8h 6h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s 7s 9c 6c 275 33.54 539 65.73 6 0.73 0.339
8c 8d Th 9h 539 65.73 275 33.54 6 0.73 0.661

[Guy McSucker]

Easy rule of thumb: ina multiway pot, only count your nut outs, but ignore quads...

This gives you 11 outs: 7 to a house, 3 to a straight, 1 to a straight flush - not 13 or 18 as you estimated. Anyway, this is enough: your full house outs are very powerful, and supposing your opponent has a flush draw, giving him a redraw if you hit the straight, then you're holding two of his outs. So you should be prepared to play for all your money I think.

As it turns out you're even stronger than this because the only opponent doesn't have a higher heart draw. (Somebody with a higher heart draw may have passed with the action on the flop, if his draw was not to the nuts.)

You've increased your outs by getting it heads up: it's hard for someone to be ahead of you - he's got to have the straight - and also to have your heart outs covered. So heads up you're in great shape. Multiway the money odds would make it worthwhile playing.

The only way to calculate the odds is to work out all combinations of fourth and fifth cards and see who wins. As it turns out, you win 66% against this holding (computer calculation), so you were more than justified lumping the money in.

Shame about the outcome.

Guy.

[Lurker]

Just out of curiosity, why do you ignore the quad out?

[J_V]

cause what if the quad also makes a straight flush..............



don't loser my poster rating please...it was a joke.....pretty please

[Bozeman]

The point is that full house outs are generally not the nuts (because of the possible quads against you), but you can usually safely assume that the quads are not out there.

Craig

[drako]

Thank you all. In hind sight, I personally wouldn't call $400+ to protect my $8 w/only Ace high hearts working, so going all-in was almost manditory to protect my whole hand against a third predator. The old saw, "The operation was a success, but the patient died," applies to poker as well as medicine.

[hubt]

As stated earlier, only count your nut outs. Against a reasonable player, you have to assume that you are drawing against a flopped straight, and almost certainly the high end of the straight. And you could very well be up against a straight with a bigger flush redraw. You really need to fill up to believe that your hand is good, your full house + quad outs are 10. Depending on the raiser and if you think you can get more callers from the rest of the table, I would tend to just call the turn and see the river and fold to a river bet if you don't make your full house. If you make your flush, then you might still have to fold to a bet, but if you get a good read on him you could call, or most likely he'll check to you on a river flush card, and you can check behind.

[Guy McSucker]

I'm not sure what you're advocating his play on the flop should be.

The poster stated he bet the flop with his top set and gutshot straight draw, and got raised. Should he not have bet, since he's not holding the nuts, or is it after the raise that you're saying he should go into calling mode?

That doesn't seem right to me: if he bet 40 and got raised 120, he has only enough left to call one bet on the turn, but by then his odds are so bad that he can't call. And if he improves on the turn, his opponent can jump ship.

Can you explain your approach a bit more?

Guy.

[hubt]

Oops I misread the original post. I read that the original raiser bet out, instead he check raised. Clearly the poster should bet the pot on the flop.

When the checkraise comes. I am tempted to do one of two things: fold or try and get all the money in on the flop. If you think he might try and pull a big check raise with anything besides the made straight(like a smaller set, or only a nut flush draw) then you get the money in. Asssuming that he has the made straight, the biggest question in my decision of which of these to do is the question of if the flush draw is good. If you think your flush would be good, then the flush + full house draw is big enough that I would put the money in. Also you can factor in your attitude towards risk. And there's no mention of the opponents stack size, so we'll assume that the opponent has the poster covered. So a pot bet then a pot check-raise makes it $120 to call. You can reraise for $360 giving him a tough decision, then on the turn you can call any bet allin with your outs. Or more likely I am tempted to fold against a typical player who has very high raising and especially checkraising standards. I think just calling the checkraise is going to force you to make a tougher decision on the turn if it doesn't pair the board or give you a nut hand and the raiser bets out the pot.

hth,
hubt