Math vs Psychology

[winky51]

live tournament 180 people $150 buy in. Start 4000 chips, blids 25/50.

Hand #6 I get Ah Ks, Raise 200.
UTG+1 cold calls. I ask why he called me. He answers "I hit my hand I bust you"

UTG+1 I know a bit. likes to see flops (2 face suited, any pair), medium aggression, plays decent post flop, rarely bluffs (from what I have seen).

FLOP: Kc Qd 6c

I bet 350, he instantly raises to 1000. Pot 1825, 650 for me to call, I have 3450 left and its in the 1st 5 mins of the tournament.

I put him on (in order of likelyness) 44, QQ, KQ, AK, AQs.

whats the next move?

[henrikrh]

by 44 you mean 66 right?

Anyways, if you really put him on that range only then it's a clear fold, you can only beat one of those hands, the risk is WAYY to huge if your read is solid.

[nightlyraver]

You must know this guy pretty well to put him on that tight of a range. If you are in fact confident with the read, obviously it's a clear fold.

I don't know this guy, but I would be less inclined to put him on 2 pair or better. If he thinks you will fire again on the turn w/ TPTK, wouldn't he wait till then to raise? Would he raise you with just a draw?

If he would raise with other hands like: QJs, JTs, AJs, ATs, QTs, etc. Then you may need to stick it to him. However, like I said above, if his most likely raising hands are the real strong ones, obviously fold.

This is not a question of math, it's a question of reading your opponent's hand.

[A_PLUS]

So, are you UG, or was this a check raise?

[EverettKings]

Edited: misread the post

Given your read, unless you have some special reason to believe that he's bluffing or semibluffing, I'd dump it. The instaraise is weird, but it could just be to make it seem like a bluff (not an uncommon tactic). If youre behind this hand is going to get very expensive to continue. His little preflop taunt sets up for a bluff, but on a board you're so likely to hit I doubt he expects to push you off much of a hand.

Kings

[winky51]

Yes I meant 66 not 44.

UNfortunately I learned a valuable lesson that day. Dont eat casino chinese just before the tournament starts when your in a rush to get there. Something in the food accelerated my brain into 100 MPH. I couldnt relax and I couldnt focus. So before my brain could stop and think about the hand my mouth yelled out "all in", he called in less than a second (also not thinking) and showed 66 for the set. I was so mad at myself, not him. God damn food made me hyper and high strung, like 4 cups of expresso high strung. So my brain's ID took over saying "he's a bad player how dare he raise me, all in" and my SUPEREGO went "Noooooooooooo!!!" Soon as it came out of my mouth I realized what I did. And I did know this player and my instincts told me I was beat. Hes the type of player that if you don't have 2 pair or better when he raises your done. See a lot of those types at these tournaments.

Irony is that 3 days vefore I just played in my 1st bigger stakes tournament ($200) and got top 3 making $5Gs. Then I pull this thing. No chinese anymore, nice salads with propel and a vitamin 2 hours before play for me.

Ive placed good in the money about 40% of my 8 multi tournaments I entered so far. Most are $33 tournaments. This was my 2nd $150+ live.

Thanks all.

[Blindcurve]

[ QUOTE ]
No chinese anymore, nice salads with propel and a vitamin 2 hours before play for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Careful. Propel is clear Kool-aid. Might spike your sugars. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

GL.

-D.