Do I need this pot?

suited_ace · #1 06-22-2005, 06:10 PM

These are two consecutive hands in a $10+1.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter

UTG (t1675)
Button (t2590)
Hero (t1415)
BB (t2320)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to t1415 (All-In), 1 fold.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter

BB (t1675)
UTG (t2590)
Hero (t1715)
SB (t2020)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero ?

flyingmoose · #2 06-22-2005, 06:14 PM

Jesus, push and push fast. This is probably a situation where you would be correct to push even if your hand were exposed.

You increase your stack by almost 1/3 from the blinds alone. Furthermore, you need to separate yourself from the other shortstack -- you can't risk him getting a walk here.

lastchance · #3 06-22-2005, 06:41 PM

Yeah. A7s is too good here, IMHO, even though your FE is a bit less from the push in SB. Also, your stack isn't comfortable enough. You've only got 6x BB. Got to keep picking up chips.

ChuckNorris · #4 06-22-2005, 08:28 PM

If you need money you need those pots. If you need to delibarately lose some tournaments to empty your account or something, then don't push.

In the first hand I'd pretty often push any two, depending on my table image + read. And A7s is a premium holding in the other example; I'd usually happily push K7 there.

lastchance · #5 06-22-2005, 08:30 PM

I disagree. At the $11's, people are ready to spitecall you with anything. If I had K7, I think I could safely muck it on the button.

flyingmoose · #6 06-22-2005, 09:59 PM

you don't need a whole lot of fold equity when the blinds are such a large portion of your stack. Even if the opponent has a loose calling range, K7 is an easy push.

Karak567 · #7 06-22-2005, 10:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree. At the $11's, people are ready to spitecall you with anything. If I had K7, I think I could safely muck it on the button.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. I think overtime your K7 wins enough + the times they will fold to make this a +EV play, even if you DO get spite called from time to time.

lastchance · #8 06-22-2005, 10:21 PM

Put them on a calling range of about 25%, (which can be pretty standard), and I doubt K7 is a push there, though if I'm wrong, I'm definitely tightening up too much as a result of being called.

SuitedSixes · #9 06-22-2005, 10:28 PM

pushpush

ChuckNorris · #10 06-22-2005, 11:26 PM

It's been a while since I've played the 10+1's. I think 25% seems like a pretty wide range at least for the SB.. but of course it's possible. Any reads are here, as usual, pretty golden! Anyways, if you put them both on a calling range of 25% (Ax, K9, QJ, 44) the results are pretty close, leaning slightly towards pushing. I didn't take into account the possibility of both of them calling, but that shouldn't change the results significantly I believe, since BB should need a very premium hand to call with after SB is all-in, no matter what kind of fish there are in 10+1's.

Against that range K7s wins 38% of the time.

Eq for folding: 0,21
Eq for stealing blinds: 0,27
Eq for getting called and winning: 0,46 on average (about the same regardless of which one calls)
Eq for getting called and losing: practically 0

So, disregarding the possibility of getting called by both of them, you steal the blinds succesfully with 0,75*0,75=0,56 probability. You get called and win with 0,44 * 0,39 = 0,17 probability.

Thus, equity for pushing with K7s is 0,56 * 0,27 + 0,17 * 0,46 = 0,23.

So yeah, if you think they both call with hands like 44 and K9 i guess it's close enough to maybe suggest a fold. But with a <6BB stack how good situations can you wait for? (Hope I got the math correct [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img])