TPTK facing aggression

Shrike · #1 06-13-2005, 05:33 AM

6th or 7th hand at the table so no reads on villain.

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 4 folds, SB calls, BB (Villain) calls.

[Preflop seems standard.]

Flop: (8 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Villain bets, Hero raises, MP1 calls, SB folds, Villain 3-bets, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

[Flop is where things go awry. Villain bets into my TPTK. I raise to isolate the field, but then Villain 3-bets it back to me. Since he was BB, he could be playing almost any two but I put him on two-pair or a set. I call the 3-bet planning to fold the turn UI.]

Turn: (8.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Villain bets, Hero folds, MP1 calls.

[I'm not really sure what could come on the turn that would make me happy. An Ace still has me behind to a set, and a Queen gives him a boat if he made two-pair using the Q. I would've stayed in with either though.]

River: (10.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Villain bets, MP1 calls.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

Comments?

Jakesta · #2 06-13-2005, 05:35 AM

Cap the flop, and call the turn and river bets. An added benefit of this is that you can have Mp1 calling down the bets with whatever crap he is holding(Ace high or maybe some crappy pair with an Ace).

Your turn fold is horrendous. Lots of players would 3bet the flop with KQ here, for example, and some will do it with even QJ. Even if you are behind to two pair, you have outs to beat it.

That river card could have counterfeited his Q3 if that's what he had. Of course, if he had Q9 or 93, then he just boated up.

thesharpie · #3 06-13-2005, 05:42 AM

Ouch that's weak. You have more outs than you think if you're behind, but there's no reason to think you're behind.

MrEngenic · #4 06-13-2005, 05:47 AM

For the love of god, what are you doing? Folding is not an option. MP1 has only called (coldcalled twice even), he probably has something like a pair with 5 outs to beat you. SB could have you beat with a set/two pair. The question is whether you want to cap the flop to try to get rid of MP1 or just call down from there.
I think it's better to just call down.

thesharpie · #5 06-13-2005, 05:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The question is whether you want to cap the flop to try to get rid of MP1...

[/ QUOTE ]

You're not getting rid of MP1 with a cap, he already cold called 2. If you capped the flop it would be for value.

MrEngenic · #6 06-13-2005, 06:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You're not getting rid of MP1 with a cap, he already cold called 2. If you capped the flop it would be for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

MP1 will likely call two more, yes. That's why it says "try" above. A bet and a 3-bet usually means he has TPTK beat where I play, 1/2 crypto.

With "he" I mean villain of course.

Shrike · #7 06-13-2005, 06:09 AM

It felt weak right after I folded (especially after BB flipped over KQ at the showdown). However, I wanted to make sure I wasn't analyzing the hand through the lens of hindsight. Thanks for the help.

parappa · #8 06-13-2005, 06:35 AM

In my opinion your estimates of the hand that villain has to be holding in order to 3-bet you on the flop are too tight. If you had a read that suggested he was a total rock, then it might be okay, but that would be rare.

Villain could be betting: KQ, QJ, QT, and maybe even something like Q9s. He could be betting A9, K9, J9, T9, and he could be betting a straight draw with JT. He could have a pair of jacks, tens, or 8s. And, of course, he could have AA/KK/QQ/99/33/Q9, all of which beat you.

So you raise. When he 3-bets you, I think it's reasonable to rule out a lot of these hands, but in addition to the hands you're scared of, he could still have KQ, QJ, QT or frisky JT, all of which you're beating. If he has you beaten you have, let's say, 4 outs to a likely winner (i'm giving you one for the queen because he could have 2-pair with the q), and the pot has 11 bets in it. If he has a set, you're drawing to 2, but it's far from the only thing he could have here and I think at this point that it's more likely that you're ahead rather than behind.

So, cap the flop. If he bets into you on the turn blank, you can narrow his holdings down a bit. A lot of people would raise in that spot, but I usually just call unless villain is really bluffy. If he check-raises you on the turn, he's probably got you beat but the pot will be almost big enough to draw to your 4ish outs, and you should call a bet on the river. What usually happens, though, is that he checks, you bet and he calls on both the turn and the river and you both show your hands.

Note that even if you're wrong about this, MP1 is almost certainly on a draw and he's padding the pot for you as well.

In all, I think your flop thought process arrived at least one street early. You can't conclude much from villain's flop bet and you shouldn't be thinking about whether to lay this hand down or not until at least the turn. People calling down your top pair is the way you make most of your money and flop raises aren't as important as turn raises.

dozer · #9 06-13-2005, 06:42 AM

actually I think villains least likely holding is a set because most players I see that flop a hand as big as a set will automatically slow play by going for a check raise or even waiting for the turn to do a checkraise.

Your hand is too strong on this rainbow uncoordinated flop to not cap and folding the turn on a safe looking card is weak.
Another option I like besides capping the flop is calling the 3-bet and raising the turn when a blank falls.