pushing over small stack's push

[J-Lo]

Do you push here or not? Do you call? Am i risking too many chips here if i push for a small gain? Is this hugeley +EV, marginal, or simply bad?

***** Hand History for Game 2197550398 *****
NL Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Trny:13039855 Level:5 Blinds(100/200) - Sunday, June 12, 19:39:55 EDT 2005
Table Table 14534 (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 5: MaFrog ( $415 )
Seat 6: mtusc09 ( $1260 )
Seat 7: perchslayer ( $2330 )
Seat 8: booradlye83 ( $2075 )
Seat 9: NotchJonson ( $3920 )
Trny:13039855 Level:5
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to booradlye83 [ As 4c ]
MaFrog is all-In [415]
mtusc09 folds.
perchslayer folds.
booradlye83 ....

[Jay36489]

No need to push. Call it, and if BB calls as well, check it down with him. You want the Bb to come along to help eliminate the small stack. The chips you win are almost meaningless, so no need to try and make it heads up. A push is bad becuase you are only getting called by a hand that beats you. If he folds to the all in you have decreased the chances of eliminating the small stack. In fact it may be correct to just call and check down here with any 2.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
You want the Bb to come along to help eliminate the small stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think the small stack busting substantially affects our equity in this case, as he's almost a nonentity at the moment anyway, so I don't agree with this reasoning.

[ QUOTE ]
The chips you win are almost meaningless, so no need to try and make it heads up.

[/ QUOTE ]

An important thing to consider is that if you don't push, big stack will call this push 99% of the time. I'd say the difference between 4400-2000 and 3700-2800, which will be the stack sizes of the big stack and you in scenarios where big stack or you wins this hand heads-up against the all-in player, is pretty substantial. Obviously sometimes big stack will lose, so this analysis is incomplete, but it definitely suggests that this isn't a meaningless spot.

[ QUOTE ]
A push is bad becuase you are only getting called by a hand that beats you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably true, but you also need to account for the low probability that BB is holding a hand that beats you.

I think this is a great spot to isolate and play for those chips.

[1C5]

I used to fold this but now I come over the top and push.

[Jay36489]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You want the Bb to come along to help eliminate the small stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think the small stack busting substantially affects our equity in this case, as he's almost a nonentity at the moment anyway, so I don't agree with this reasoning.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he doubles up twice he is back in contention and no longer the short stack. I would certainly feel better about him being eliminated, but you make a good point.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The chips you win are almost meaningless, so no need to try and make it heads up.

[/ QUOTE ]

An important thing to consider is that if you don't push, big stack will call this push 99% of the time. I'd say the difference between 4400-2000 and 3700-2800, which will be the stack sizes of the big stack and you in scenarios where big stack or you wins this hand heads-up against the all-in player, is pretty substantial. Obviously sometimes big stack will lose, so this analysis is incomplete, but it definitely suggests that this isn't a meaningless spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was reffering to the t200 in the BB. If you push and Bb folds that 200 goes in with no equity, but you have less a chance of knocking the small stack out. If you call, he probably calls with any two, so he has little equity. So now there is an extra 215 in with a little more equity, but a better chance to get the small stack out. Is that the wrong way to look at it?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A push is bad becuase you are only getting called by a hand that beats you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably true, but you also need to account for the low probability that BB is holding a hand that beats you.

I think this is a great spot to isolate and play for those chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

You make good points. Perhaps this situation is more boderline then I was thinking.

[Scuba Chuck]

You should seriously play the folks here. Raise to t666. The sign of the devil. That'll scare'em.

Scuba

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

I was reffering to the t200 in the BB. If you push and Bb folds that 200 goes in with no equity, but you have less a chance of knocking the small stack out. If you call, he probably calls with any two, so he has little equity. So now there is an extra 215 in with a little more equity, but a better chance to get the small stack out. Is that the wrong way to look at it?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I understand what you're getting at here.

BB is going to need to call 215 into a pot of 715. Basically 3.5:1. Those are great odds. Calling this push will be + chip EV for BB for sure.

Now, on the other hand, what about us? UTG pushed 2 BBs in. At this point, I think he's probably right to make that push with any better than average hand - if he has a worse than average hand, I think he might as well just wait and get his money in on the BB next hand. So, given that, our weak A probably won't play so well. That said, assuming we successfully isolate, we're still getting 7:3 odds on our call with a hand that isn't going to be a 30% dog to his pushing range, so it's a + chip EV move for us as well.

So, the way I see it, there's a + chip EV move up for grabs for either Hero or the big stack. I think Hero benefits in these situations by being the one to take the opportunity, because not only is there direct benefit (+chip EV for Hero) but some indirect benefit by taking away a +chip EV spot for the big stack. Losing some chips here to the shorty won't hurt us too much, but winning them prevents big stack from winning them and pulling too far ahead. So my suspicion is that it all shakes out to be markedly + $EV to push over the top here. I haven't done any math to validate this idea, but it seems pretty intuitively correct to me.

[Jay36489]

That makes sense. I think you sold me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I guess I was just thinking since BB calls with any two hes probably going in with a worse hand, so I fear it less. Looking at it again I guess the $615 is worth playing for.

[gumpzilla]

I'll reply to my own post with some quick math I just did. It's a little shaky in places but it seems reasonable.

I assume a range for UTG of: any A, K or Q, any pair, JT-J9, T9. This is the flavor of what I think UTG might push with given the situation, the main thing is just that really doggy hands like 32o shouldn't be in here.

Against such a range, A4o has an equity of 51.2%; a random hand has equity of 42.2%. We assume that if we fold, big stack calls with any two. We also assume for ease of calculation that pot equity = chances of winning.

On average, Hero's ICM equity when he folds is .422 * .2311 + .578 * .2092 ~ .218.

On average, Hero's ICM equity when he pushes and BB folds is .512 * .2724 + .488 * .1846 ~ .229.

Let's say BB will call this push with TT+, AK. That means that BB is going to call on the order of 2 or 3% of the time. When he does, our average equity won't be so hot, but it's not going to make a big impact on our average when we push, just slightly depress it. So pushing seems pretty clearly better. One also notices that pushing is the higher variance play: you get the highest high and the lowest low, combining for a better average than folding.

[J-Lo]

Alright good, i don't feel so bad. It only upset me because stack #3 was less than mind had i folded. short stack had 66 and BB woke up w/ KK. I pushed, and it wasn't a pretty outcome... [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]