Gamble or Fold?

[manku]

On line .25/.50 PL Omaha8. I have about $30, two others involved have me well covered.

Cut to chase:

After turn: Board is 2-6-10-J, two diamonds.

I have: Ad-8d-9-K. on button.

I've just thrown $5 in on flop, after BB bets with one other LP caller.

After turn, BB bets pot, around $17 or so. LP calls.

I would have about $10 left to bet on river if I hit my draw.

Do I call?

I did, flush didn't come, and it was an easy river fold as LP bet pot. But I felt my call was too loose.

Comments.

manku

[Greg (FossilMan)]

I'm going to assume that there was no other flush draw, i.e, there were not 2 spades and 2 diamonds, but only 2 diamonds and 1 each of two other suits.

You have 13 nut outs here, assuming that none of the diamonds make a straight flush possible by an opponent. You are getting 3:1 immediate odds, plus about 3.5:1 or 4:1 total odds if you get paid off in 1 or 2 spots for your last $10 on the river. You also have 2 spade outs that pair the board, but those are probably good less than 5% of the time. You also might catch one of your 6 straight outs and only split the pot.

Overall, you are about 31:13 against improving on the river to the nuts. That's only about 2.5:1 against. If we count your 6 outs that might split as half outs, you are 34:10 against improving. Since you're getting paid at least 3:1, but possibly as high as 4:1, it seems to me like an automatic call.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Bozeman]

but it's o8, Greg,

Craig

[Ray Zee]

you shouldnt have even considered being in the pot. you need to learn what to play with. until then you will have no chance of winning. so get back to square one. you wont regret it if you do.

[hillbilly]

manku, i'm very sure ray thinks your hand is a fold preflop in O8/better, even from the button, even in an unraised pot. while it does have one nut flush draw in it, you are only playing realistically for half of the pot, as you have no low draw worth playing. if you make a nut str8t with your 89 hand it puts a low on the board, or you can make the wrong end of a str8t the other way.your AK hand can lose you a bundle even when you flop top 2 pair and of course can only leave you with a gut shot draw. i don't think we need mention your A9 or K8 or K9 hand.

your description of the hand is a little vague, but give yourself the same hand in an unraised pot in the big blind, make the flop 2TJ with two diamonds, and you still likely don't have a hand you want to face much heat with, although i think it would be worth five bucks to see the turn if you were closing the action to try and snag a non pairing diamond, or a lucky Q, which give you the nut str8t on a no low possible board. yet even then you may be free-rolled by the same hand with a re-draw to a full house....so as ray might say, you have to know how to play poker well to decide to play on. the key though is to make the nuts with redraws to bigger hands.

by all means don't play any more O/8 until you have read or re-read ray's hi/lo book. he doesn't need the money but you need to read it or you will be in the pot constantly taking much the worst of it and really have no chance...i'm no expert by far but this book has given me a big overlay against the hoodlums i face in my local home games...

best wishes

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Oops.

Then I say my prior analysis isn't worth much.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[ender]

When I read the phrase, "cut to the chase", in this post, I thought the same thing, there must have been an earlier mistake that the poster wanted to avoid talking about. I've found the beauty of playing correctly pre-flop in these games is the hand routinely play easier on the flop. When I'm faced with a hard decision on the flop or turn it's often because I should have mucked pre-flop.

That being said I don't like playing micro limit big bet games because I play too loose due to the limits.

[limon]

you say "i just *threw* in $5 on the flop". $5 is a huge bet in this game its like $500 in a 25/50 game you dont just casually throw it in. if the game is to small for you to make good decisions move up in limits. no reason to start bad habits. thats the problem with this on-line [censored] (pre determined outburst). do you live in los angeles i know i small 1-2 to go LIVE game where you can drink and smoke cigars and really enjoy yourself with (ugh) PEOPLE! e-mail me radio879@hotmail.com (ps the game is wayyy to small for any cheating/collusion to occur so dont worry about it)