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#1
06-10-2005, 05:27 AM
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\'Hurt\' Cards Probability
After reading the "Don't Look for an Ace" post, here's a question that I never really thought much about.
Say you have QQ, and the flop comes ragged undercards. Say that you are vulnerable to a K or an A. If you were trying to determine how many 'bad outs' you had, would you consider that number to be 6, because if it were more then not all of them were 'bad outs' after all? I haven't thought that much about this. There might be no practical use of this, but I'm not sure. -RMJ 
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#2
06-10-2005, 09:58 AM
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Re: \'Hurt\' Cards Probability
The three (or two) of the top pair out there is potentially a bad out if the board comes 10 6 4, because someone might play a K10 or A10 to the end with a board like that. This would give eight bad outs in my opinion. Depends on how much you raised preflop to scare the K10 and A10.
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#3
06-10-2005, 11:40 AM
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Re: \'Hurt\' Cards Probability
Depends on what you mean by bad outs. Do bad outs mean you lose the hand (or have a lower percentage of winning than before the card came out) or are bad outs "scare cards" where there's a good chance they helped your opponent?
You'd have 8 scare cards. You don't know if your opponents hold an Ace or a King yet, and any Ace or King will devalue your hand (in your mind at least) unless you're pretty sure your opponents are not holding one or the other. But if you were so sure they weren't holding an Ace or a King anyway, it wouldn't be a very scary scare card.
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