AA hitting set consecutively!

[primate]

Iposted this originally in the small stakes forum and was advised to post here. Got a bit of attention there.

Party Poker $50nl ring game, full stacks. Played today just prior to posting.

Dealt pocket aces, poor sucker has KK and we're both all in preflop. I hit a set and scoop.

Very next hand guess what?

Pocket A's. This time another sucker raises in front of me. I reraise hoping that he thinks i'm making a move on him. He calls and we see a flop.

322 rainbow.

He checks and I bet 2/3rd pot. He goes all in and I call thinking I'm up against KK,QQ,JJ.

He turns over pocket 3's.. he has a set. But wait! salvation is found in the river which brings an ACE baby! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Pay day! Pocket Aces dealt twice in a row, I hit the set both times and get fully paid off both times.

What are the odds? Any other similar stories?

[LetYouDown]

Probability of having A-A before the flop 1/221.

Probability of hitting a board containing an A:

1 - (48 C 5/50 C 5) = .1918...%

So it seems like hitting a third of any any specific pair is .00086...%.

Squaring this for the odds of it happening twice in a row, you'd get about a:

.0000007535% shot

So, provided my math/approach isn't wrong here (which wouldn't surprise me)...looks like about a 1,327,152-to-1 shot. I'd wait for someone to verify/nullify this. Absolutely no logic/mathematics checking.

[DrPublo]

You're not factoring in the specifics of the 2nd hand. There are fewer boards for set-over-set than there are for just consecutive sets. Moreover the board is also paired, meaning there's one less card for you and your opponent to make the set.

The Doc

[LetYouDown]

I never claimed to be factoring in the opponents' holdings. I also think he's looking for a ballpark answer more than anything...but if I'm wrong on that assumption, I can try to grunt it out with inclusion/exclusion.

[d10]

The fact that the board is paired shouldn't be factored in. If we wanted to factor everything in we could figure the chances of hitting a set with AA given the fact that you have AA and an A came on the flop. Obviously this is pointless.

[Mike Cuneo]

[ QUOTE ]


He turns over pocket 3's.. he has a set.



[/ QUOTE ]

No, he has a full house. Nice suckout.