Avoid mechanical river plays?

Roadstar · #1 06-08-2005, 12:53 AM

Recently started playing at $1/$2. Table VPIP is still around 25%. Villain seems to be a fish, VPIP 60+% 0% pfr, aggression under 1 (but only over 20 hands).

I think most of this hand is standard until the river. I know it seems that the general rule in micros dictate that I call this - but I really think I'm beat - do you call here?

Thanks in advance

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

River: (8.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero ???

Final Pot: 9.25 BB

istewart · #2 06-08-2005, 12:55 AM

You're beat often, but you should call. You'll go long dry spells without winning in a situation like this, but one day you'll pick off a bluff here, a weak jack there, and you'll feel like Ed Miller's bastard stepchild [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

bighomage · #3 06-08-2005, 12:59 AM

This is a must call. He could definitely have the 9, but you only have to have him beat about 11% of the time. The second 9 can be a tempting card for a fish to bluff on. Don't reward him for doing it.

Roadstar · #4 06-08-2005, 01:04 AM

do you guys consider the flush possibility too?

bighomage · #5 06-08-2005, 01:06 AM

I shouldn't be admitting this but I missed the flush.... It's been way too long of a day. Nevertheless, you should still call the river.

Isura · #6 06-08-2005, 01:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
do you guys consider the flush possibility too?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but I'd still call this down given the pot size. Heads up and it's a no-brainer.

KeysrSoze · #7 06-08-2005, 01:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You're beat often, but you should call. You'll go long dry spells without winning in a situation like this, but one day you'll pick off a bluff here, a weak jack there, and you'll feel like Ed Miller's bastard stepchild [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, mechanical as in you usually know the outcome, but occasionally someone throws a wrench in the gears and this happens:

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, MP2 calls, 4 folds.

Flop: (5.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP2 raises, Hero calls.

River: (7.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.75 BB

Results in white below:
Hero has Qc Ah (two pair, aces and queens).
MP2 has Ts 6d (one pair, tens).
Outcome: Hero wins 9.75 BB.

Now this is an extreme case that happened today, I saw this joker do things like bet into and then call raises with middle pair on a four flush board several times, but same general idea.

Roadstar · #8 06-08-2005, 01:01 PM

I know it seems like a nobrainer [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] but its not heads up, there is still MP1. My thinking was these two guys must be drawing to something - do you consider the possibility of a C/R from MP1 (if he finally hit the flush/trips)?

bozlax · #9 06-08-2005, 01:21 PM

Easy call. I don't think he's calling the flop with a 9 unless he's holding 98 or, unbelievable, Q9, and I think he'd C/R with either of those holdings. I'd say he's more likely holding AT, or maybe AJ/KJ/QJ.

Aaron W. · #10 06-08-2005, 01:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think most of this hand is standard until the river. I know it seems that the general rule in micros dictate that I call this - but I really think I'm beat - do you call here?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not whether you think you're beat, but how probable it is that you think you're beat. The non-mechanical part of the river play is this assessment. The play itself almost always is mechanical. You're calling unless you have a *VERY STRONG READ* against this specific player that he would *NEVER* bluff.

How strong of a read? You're getting 9:1, which means he must be bluffing less than 10% of the time. Realistically, you can only expect to get estimate these bluff donk-betting percents within 5-10% of accurate if you're really good at it. That means if you estimate he has a 0% chance of bluffing here, you still *might* fall into your range of uncertainty. There's just not enough information on this hand (call-call-bet doesn't say much) to turn this into a fold.

On the other hand, if MP1 check-raises, I think you can safely fold, as river bluff-check-raises with multiple players in the pot are exceedingly rare (note all of the extra information).