Party 22, QQ on bubble, insta call right?

[1C5]

Not my hand, a buddies. You call here right?
Anyone fold QQ here? Interesting hand because of the stack sizes though.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter

Hero (t2050)
BB (t680)
UTG (t2680)
Button (t2590)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t2680 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls t380 (All-In).

Flop: (t3510) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t3510) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

River: (t3510) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t3510

[RobGW]

At first glance I was thinking that I would beat him into the pot. According to ICM I needed to win this 70% of the time to breakeven. I think QQ will give me that much on average at least. However, there are extenuating circumstances. With BB being so short it may be a better line to fold here. If BB calls he'll likely be out getting you into the money and then you can start gambling. If BB folds that gives YOU the opportunity to steal some blinds. So if you think you can effectively steal then it may be better to fold. UTG is in the BB next so you can get even with him on the very next hand. If you don't have the heart to push and steal some blinds or if your opponents will spite call you then it may be better to gamble now.

[jzieg2313]

I would fold. Still plenty of time to play after shorty goes out.

JZ

[jgunnip]

This is similar to another hand that was recent posted where hero had TT. However, here the bigger stack pushes and the smallstack is calling. Not sure how much this changes the dynamics. But you also have QQ and unless I've got a reliable read that suggests folding here is best, I'm usually getting all my chips in with the 3rd best starting hand.

[lastchance]

Never mind. I'm dumb, adanthar's right. Since BB's equity is actually quite large comparatively, unless he folds this, you only need to win 60% of the time, swinging this to an easy call.

[adanthar]

Aaaaand, the Maginot line of people making/applauding ridiculous folds on the bubble has been crossed, too. That's two on the same day.

[GoldenHorde]

[ QUOTE ]
Aaaaand, the Maginot line of people making/applauding ridiculous folds on the bubble has been crossed, too. That's two on the same day.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow you aren't kidding, I remember arguing trying to convince people that you often had to fold the best hand on the bubble in certain situations but this has been taken too far.

[durron597]

Assume the BB always calls and loses (to try to make calling as bad as possible)

$EV fold: .3012
$EV call and lose: 0
$EV call and win: .3962

Thus you need to win the hand only 76% of the time to make it +$EV. QQ is 70% against Ax. If the BB thinks you might fold QQ here, it's +EV to push with any two.

I think you have to call here.

[dhende3]

I fold it.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Thus you need to win the hand only 76% of the time to make it +$EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Boy, could you marginalize this anymore?

Button's hand range is extremely wide. Obviously, you're also acting ahead of BB here, who is very likely to fold if you call. At least if he's smart. I think you can exclude AA or KK from the hand range with a push.

So, excluding AA/KK, and including Any A, Any two broadway, and all the other pairs, QQ is only a 73% favorite here.

That being said, a case could be made for folding here. I doubt I would do it. But maybe that's a leak.

Scuba