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  #1  
Old 06-04-2005, 07:05 AM
theredpill6 theredpill6 is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 104
Default Odds of two people flopping a straight ?

In the past two days, I've been getting screwed.

What are odds of two people flopping the same exact nut straight ?

I had Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on this board:

Villain had Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

All-in on the turn. You know how this turns out.
What are the odds that happens ? Please tell me it is low because I'm about to lose it here.

I've had set over set 3 times in the last month. That is supposed to be rare so WTF is happening.

Yesterday I had 6 6 on this board

K T 6

villain had TT .

I won some money only to lose it all back on some crazy miracle flop.

I'm losing big pots and winning small ones.
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  #2  
Old 06-04-2005, 07:30 AM
theredpill6 theredpill6 is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 104
Default Re: Odds of two people flopping a straight ?

I'm never playing on a 20 % VPIP table ever again. I notice these bad beats because on my good hands I'm not making enough to cover these bad beats. Thus, I'm not quite sure I'm playing a +EV game on a 20 % VPIP table.
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  #3  
Old 06-04-2005, 08:29 AM
jason_t jason_t is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Another downswing?
Posts: 2,274
Default Re: Odds of two people flopping a straight ?

Getting dealt AA is rare. (I hope you see the points I'm making here.)
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  #4  
Old 06-06-2005, 05:13 PM
AaronBrown AaronBrown is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 505
Default Re: Odds of two people flopping a straight ?

You have to be careful how you define things. Assume that you flop a straight. There are 9 different ways your opponent can flop the same straight, out of 1,081 possible hands. So the odds are 9/1,081 = 0.8%. However, with nine opponents at the table, and assuming your hand is a normal calling hand (otherwise, why would you still be in the pot?), the odds go up to 7.2%, or about 1 time in 14. It's not that unusual.

If the flop has three different ranks, and you hold a pair matching the lowest rank, your opponent has six ways to hold a higher set. 6/1,081 = 0.6%. With nine opponents, 4.9%.
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  #5  
Old 06-06-2005, 06:36 PM
ethan ethan is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: los angeles
Posts: 237
Default Re: Odds of two people flopping a straight ?

Maybe Omaha would be a better game for you.
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