Looks obvious, but ICM says not?

[dfscott]

I know ICM is far from perfect, but this particular situation surprised me:

Button ( t1635 )
Me ( t5730 )
BB ( t635 )
Blinds(50/100)

I have JJ, and button folds.

I felt like this was a no-brainer push, but ICM declared it to be marginal, based on the range I put BB on (he was very tight, so I put him calling on 77+, A9+).

Any thoughts about why this is? Is it because ICM only considers percentage of the prize pool and not the fact that there are actually points in the tournament where you are guaranteed a certain payout (i.e., if you knock this guy out, you now have 2nd locked)?

Looking at the possible outcomes:

1) You push, he folds (90%). The 150 chips you get aren't worth that much to you, nor does the loss hurt your opponent that much.
2) You push, he calls, your jacks hold up (6%). Great result for you -- you're guaranteed 2nd.
3) You push, he calls, he doubles up (4%). Bad for you, but not too bad -- he's still short-stacked.

Perhaps because the chance of #1 is so great, and it's such a "blah" result is why it's a marginal play?

[kevstreet]

Very odd. You can't fold the hand, calling is out of the question and there is no sense in a raise because you're not laying down if he comes over the top.

Do you use ICM during your SnGs or only after you've reviewed hand histories?

[nickianthony]

he's going to fold most of the time, especially if his range is really that tight. when he does call, you're only a 60-40 favorite.

[Phil Van Sexton]

You have so many chips, and he has so few that everything is going to be "marginal".

It is +$EV right?

It is either + or -. There is no such thing as "marginal" here.

[The once and future king]

The way the hand and situation plays you have to push it anyway. Why look at the ICM?

I mean are you going to

1: Fold--- Feck no.
2: Complete--- Whats the fecking point.
3: Push--- Well what else am I supposed to do.

In this situation I think you need to exorcise the accounting ghost in your machine.

The only other way of looking at this is if you want to keep the small stack in to increase your FE against the middle stack. ITM im not sure how much merit there is in that approach.

[eastbay]

ICM doesn't say not. I'm guessing you have the default "min edge" set to 0.5% in SGA and it's saying "close decision." This is one of those factors which is hard to make fully automatic, but that's just not the right edge setting for this scenario. The right edge setting here is 0%. 3rd money is already locked up and out of contention (which gives me an idea for an improvement to SGA). You're big stack, there's not much play left here to use any skill advantage. Take 'em if you got 'em.

Eaaaasy all-in.

eastbay

[microbet]

Bingo. Go to the extreme - you have AA and he has 51 chips. It will be very very slightly +$EV to push.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
Bingo. Go to the extreme - you have AA and he has 51 chips. It will be very very slightly +$EV to push.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd fold if he had 51 chips. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
ICM doesn't say not. I'm guessing you have the default "min edge" set to 0.5% in SGA and it's saying "close decision." This is one of those factors which is hard to make fully automatic, but that's just not the right edge setting for this scenario. The right edge setting here is 0%. 3rd money is already locked up and out of contention (which gives me an idea for an improvement to SGA). You're big stack, there's not much play left here to use any skill advantage. Take 'em if you got 'em.

Eaaaasy all-in.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, didn't mean to imply that I thought ICM was saying not to push, just that it didn't say "obvious push." I understand the "push threshold" thingy as well. I just found it interesting, maybe because once you get ITM with a big chip lead, the decisions aren't quite as clear-cut (or at least the outcomes aren't that different, dollar-wise).

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bingo. Go to the extreme - you have AA and he has 51 chips. It will be very very slightly +$EV to push.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd fold if he had 51 chips. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless the other guy had < 100 as well. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]