Andrew G Question

[BATMAN...]

In a recent A.G. column, he describes a hand where one guy has As,Ac, and the other has Kh,Qh. The flop is Jh,10h,2c.
He says that the winner is a coin flip with the AA having a 1% edge. I am very much a beginner and can not figure this one out.

I thought that the AA would be about a 2:1 favorite.
That is 45 cards not seen after they got all in before the flop. The KQ has the four 9's and the 2 A's plus 7 hearts for a total of 13 cards that will help.
That's 32/13 in favor of the AA. Now, I know A.G. is correct, but I don't know where I am going wrong on this calculation. Thanks for any help.

[BruceZ]

There are 2 chances for KhQh to catch one of the 13 cards that help. The chance of this is 1 minus the chance of not catching one of these cards, which is 1 - (32/45)(31/44) = 50.1%, BUT, it is also possible for KhQh to improve, while AsAc also improves to make a winning straight or a full house. The poker simulator at www.twodimes.net/poker shows AsAc wins 50.6% of the time, which is a 1.2% edge.

<pre><font class="small">code:</font><hr>
Running: pokenum -h as ac - kh qh -- jh th 2s :
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 2s Jh Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ac 501 50.61 489 49.39 0 0.00 0.506
Kh Qh 489 49.39 501 50.61 0 0.00 0.494
</pre><hr>

[BATMAN...]

Thanks for the help. I knew I was missing something obvious.