Borg 1/2 Deep Stack .. Set Decision

[onehandfold]

Here are two analyses I want you to make barring any reads.
Give me your responses given hero being dealt JJ,88,22.

UTG has 650
MP1 has 200
MP2 has 900
Hero is CO with 900



MP2 raises to 10 preflop.
10 callers to the flop.

Pot: 70
Flop: 28hJh

MP1 bets 20, MP2 calls, folds to Hero who raises to 125, UTG raises to 225, MP1 folds, MP2 folds. Hero...?

Hero called.

Pot: 660
Turn is 6 off. UTG pushes for 415. Hero...?

[onehandfold]

from the lack of responses, i guess its an easy:
22: fold
88: 50/50 call
jj: push?

[Sephus]

JJ call
88 call
22 fold.

[xorbie]

88 you can raise PF. 22 you can raise PF. JJ, definitely raise PF.

[onehandfold]

Alright.
I dont know how to play a deep stack effectively, so can I get some solid reasoning why I should raise these preflop so I can add this to my regular thought process when making a decision?

[rikz]

[ QUOTE ]
... barring any reads.

[/ QUOTE ]

Barring any reads, I can't see doing anything other than going to the felt when you flop a set, even bottom set, given that UTG could have had AJ or a flush draw himself. I guess you are wondering what are the odds that the preflop limp/calling UTG wakes up for a post flop check-raise and turn push with anything other than a set. Well, that would be read dependend. And, barring any reads, I don't give UTG credit for a higher set if I flop a set. So I guess I call UTG's push with a set of 2s, a set of 8s, and a set of Js here every time. He might have a higher set, but then again, he might have J8 for two pair. He might have 9T for an OESD. He might have 9Ts for an OESFD. He could have just about any non-premium hole cards with which he would call the preflop raise that hits that board - including AJ, since a lot of tight players will limp/call with AJs UTG.

So, I'm calling his push with my set and crossing my fingers that he isn't a rock who would ONLY do that with a set.

Now, if I had any kind of read that this player might ONLY do that turn push with a set of 8s or Js, then I MIGHT fold to the turn push if I've got bottom set of 2s.

Of course, I would have reraised UTG's flop raise and ended up all-in before the turn anyway, even with a set of 2s, so folding to the turn all-in would not have been an option for me.

[JaBlue]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
... barring any reads.

[/ QUOTE ]

Barring any reads, I can't see doing anything other than going to the felt when you flop a set, even bottom set, given that UTG could have had AJ or a flush draw himself. I guess you are wondering what are the odds that the preflop limp/calling UTG wakes up for a post flop check-raise and turn push with anything other than a set. Well, that would be read dependend. And, barring any reads, I don't give UTG credit for a higher set if I flop a set. So I guess I call UTG's push with a set of 2s, a set of 8s, and a set of Js here every time. He might have a higher set, but then again, he might have J8 for two pair. He might have 9T for an OESD. He might have 9Ts for an OESFD. He could have just about any non-premium hole cards with which he would call the preflop raise that hits that board - including AJ, since a lot of tight players will limp/call with AJs UTG.

So, I'm calling his push with my set and crossing my fingers that he isn't a rock who would ONLY do that with a set.

Now, if I had any kind of read that this player might ONLY do that turn push with a set of 8s or Js, then I MIGHT fold to the turn push if I've got bottom set of 2s.

Of course, I would have reraised UTG's flop raise and ended up all-in before the turn anyway, even with a set of 2s, so folding to the turn all-in would not have been an option for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you are going broke without a read with bottom set and 300BB, you should not be playing this deep. However "barring any reads" is pretty inexcusable. What is the average caliber of play at this game? Just give me some damned info. If UTG is going to play AA or KK this way, the whole evaluation of every situation changes.

[greg nice]

you built your stack to 900 and dont have any reads? lol.

[blackize]

I dont know how you can not have any reads. Reads come not only from how your opponent has played in the past. You can also get reads from logically analying his bets. While it is possible that he would do this with JJ or 88, it is far more likely that he is playing this way with a more vulnerable hand. I would weight it towards the more vulnerable hands he could be holding like AJ QQ KK AA. The turn push looks to me like the flush and straight's missed and he thinks TPTK is good.

[onehandfold]

alright!
it was a dumb request...
there was a clear read on this guy.
hes a buddy you traveled with 2 hours to AC.
you know how he plays because youve played on many occasions with him.
he doesnt limp with AA or KK utg, especially at this fairly passive game.
and wouldnt push 9Th this hard, or even AKh.
hero's call was massive -ev.
hero knew it was a bad call and got greedy for the 1 outter.
hero had 22.
villain had jj.

not sure why hero called...iiiii wont be doing that again though...

how to 900? we'll just say i was lucky a couple times...

hero is still in denial.