100xBB on an overpair?

Ghazban · #1 05-26-2005, 11:39 AM

Villain is a bit of a donk and has shown down all sorts of crap in raised pots (KTo, 65o, A9o). The flop looks like way ahead/way behind to me so I don't see a point in raising there. He paused for a very long time before betting the turn and, at that point, it was clearly push or fold time to me. Comments?

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.50 BB (9 handed) converter

Button ($18.21)
SB ($45.45)
BB ($48.74)
UTG ($33)
UTG+1 ($18.15)
MP1 ($23)
MP2 ($70.57)
MP3 ($24.10)
Hero ($67.35)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP3 calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.25, 2 folds, BB calls $1.75, MP3 calls $1.75.

Flop: ($7) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets $7, MP3 folds, Hero calls $7.

Turn: ($21) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $21, Hero raises to $42, BB calls all-in

tripdad · #2 05-26-2005, 12:17 PM

i like your hand here....i would have raised the flop against this type of player, though. i agree with your turn push.

cheers!

sting · #3 05-26-2005, 12:23 PM

Question: Has Villain shown down only winners with his crap in raised pots? If he hasn't, I call in a flash. Too much potential for an AJ, KJ or QJ for me to fold.

subzero · #4 05-26-2005, 12:25 PM

I like your line. Given your read of villain, he could easily have KJ or QJ. If he has a set, so be it. I'm not getting away from this hand.

Soul Daddy · #5 05-26-2005, 12:26 PM

Can you please elaborate on why you think this flop is a way ahead/way behind situation? Is he normally pretty passive with his junk top pair?

PinkSteel · #6 05-26-2005, 12:35 PM

I think way ahead/way behind here means that both Hero and Villain are drawing to very few outs to improve and overtake the opponent.

Hero has 2 outs, period. Villain has very few possible drawing hands here that he would call Hero's preflop raise with, so he's drawing thin as well.

So whoever is ahead right here is highly likely to finish ahead.

Soul Daddy · #7 05-26-2005, 12:40 PM

I understand what it means, I just don't see them as equally likely occurences with this board without a read that villain is not betting this strongly with at least 2 pair.

Ghazban · #8 05-26-2005, 12:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Can you please elaborate on why you think this flop is a way ahead/way behind situation? Is he normally pretty passive with his junk top pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

Other than 65, there are no draws on this board (its rainbow and fairly disjointed). If I'm not winning here, I'm most likely up against a set and have only two outs (the other two aces, the runner-runner straight doesn't count for much). If villain has just one pair himself, he's either got 2-5 outs (if he has KK/QQ/TT, he has 2, if he has AJ, he has 2, if he has KJ/QJ/JT/Jx, he has 5).

If I am way ahead, he might fold to a raise. If I am way behind, he will certainly call or even reraise. Furthermore, if I am way ahead, he might bet again on the turn. In general, raising in way ahead/way behind situations just lets your opponent get away from the hands that are way behind but costs you a fortune when he's got the hands that are way ahead.

TheWorstPlayer · #9 05-26-2005, 01:05 PM

NH. It's a J for sure.

tripdad · #10 05-26-2005, 01:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
NH. It's a J for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

but it may be J-9. i raise the flop a modest amount...if he comes back over all-in, i can fold my hand. if he calls, the money is going in on the turn whether he hits his kicker or not, as there is no way to find out at that point.

cheers!