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#1
12-13-2002, 06:07 PM
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Fourth St Decision
There are two of you left in the pot. The board is JT64 different suits. You have AK. The other player bets into you. You can't make him fold. You know he has JT, QJ, KJ, or AJ. He will play all those hands. Some are more likely only because of cards out.
If an ace, king or queen, hit on the river he will check and call no matter what he has. Assuming that the river bet is the same size as the turn bet, what odds do you need on the turn to make it right to call with your AK? (Both estimaters and calculators should feel free to take a stab at this question. But please identify which one you are.) 
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#2
12-13-2002, 06:40 PM
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Re: Fourth St Decision
Edited note: Useless analysis as I forget about the Queen outs for Broadway:
Guesstimate: Odds of improving are at 13:2 i.e. 6 outs out of 45 unknown cards given that you know he has a Jack. But the odds of improving to the best hand are only at about 10:1 or 11:1 given that if you improve, he will still have you beat about 40% of the time. When he checks the river and when you improve, you should bet given your 60%/40% advantage (asuming that he will never checkraise with two pairs). So, you have some implied odds working in your favour. So, I'll say that the pot should have 9 or 10 bigs for you to call you on the turn.
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#6
12-13-2002, 07:03 PM
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Re: Fourth St Decision
I figure it about 4: 1
Your ways to improve are 10/45 When you improve, you will win about 80% of the time. But your river bet will be profitable 80% of the time. Put it all in a blender and I would ballpark it at 4:1. A little worse perhaps. I probably made another bonehead blunder there somewhere :-)
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#7
12-13-2002, 07:12 PM
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Re: Fourth St Decision
If you hit an A on the river...you beat QJ and KJ. If you hit a K on the river...you beat AJ and QJ. You need specifically a Q to beat JT, therefore if I felt confident that my opponent was holding specifically JT, I probably wouldn't make the draw on any less than great odds.
So what we're talking about is 4 solid outs to the nut hand (if you catch a river Q), 3 outs on A that should win the hand 2/5 of the time, 3 outs on the K that should win 2/5 of the time. This is how I do it for a very rough "sitting at the poker table" sort of calculation, and please, correct me if I am wrong...I would count 4 solid outs with the Q's, and reduce the K's and the A's to about 1 out each (it's actually about 1.2 outs each but I always like juicy odds). So I would probably count myself for 6 outs for the purposes of pot odds. (I forget most of my college statistics so I know that this isn't quite right because you probably have to multiply the probabilities or something??) Therefore, my odds are 40-6 of improving to the winning hand which reduces to not quite a 7 to 1 shot. I would therefore like to have 7 bb's in the pot on the turn to call the bet but would likely settle for 6 bb's since he will check and call if an ace, king or queen falls on the river. I know this is a rough calculation so please show me a better way! Thanks!!
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#8
12-13-2002, 07:12 PM
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Call the turn if 6 BB are in the pot?
Estimate:
The 4 Queen outs are always good. Kings and Aces are only good against 2 of his hands, so instead of 6 outs that's 3. But it's a little more than three because he'se a little bit more likely to have QJ than the other hands, so it's probably more like 3.2 outs. 10 A/K/Q out of 45 cards. So, 10 times, I put in 2 bets. 35 other cards, so 35 times I put in 1 bet. That's a total of 55 bets I put in. I win about 7.2 times, so I need to make about 7.6 bets each time. The times I win, I put 2 in the turn and river, so that means 5.6 need to be in the pot for me to call the turn. I'll call w/ 6 BB in the pot.
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#10
12-13-2002, 07:19 PM
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Re: Fourth St Decision
Guess...
I think you stay in this only for the nut straight. With that thought in mind you need at least 14+ BB. If the other player is holding a Q (which you previously decided) you only have 3 real outs. If you "beleive" you are behind and some of your outs (AK)are counterfit is folding a terrible decision?
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