Tough Hand, wasn't sure whether to make call on Riv?

obisponator · #1 05-25-2005, 01:00 PM

I really felt like this guy hit his flush, so i folded even though a lot of people might say i should have called... Some input would be nice

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter

MP3 (t1020)
CO (t685)
Button (t475)
SB (t785)
Hero (t800)
UTG (t755)
UTG+1 (t1295)
UTG+2 (t800)
MP1 (t715)
MP2 (t670)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls t15, MP1 calls t15, 1 fold, MP3 calls t15, CO calls t15, 1 fold, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t87.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 bets t30, MP3 calls t30, CO calls t30, SB folds, Hero calls t30, UTG+2 folds.

Turn: (t207.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets t50, MP3 folds, CO calls t50, Hero calls t50.

River: (t357.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets t150, MP1 folds, CO raises to t300, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t807.50

Rosencrantz1 · #2 05-25-2005, 01:06 PM

To your original question:

You have to call 150 into a 800 pot; you're getting just better than 5:1 on your money.

There are 9 clubs out and he has to have two of them (or a 4-7) to beat you.

I think this is pretty clearly a call.

In other news:

I think you played way too passively this entire hand. I understand why you're scared of K-better x after the flop, but by check-calling, you get zero useful information about his hand.

You need to make a probe bet on the flop, as little as 1/2 pot (or about 40) should do it here.

Even worse, IMO, on the turn. You have top pair and a solid OESD; you've got to lead out here, probably a pot-sized bet (or maybe you could get away for 3/4)

You've let him see cards super-cheap every street and you need to protect your hand (which may very well be the best) against draws.

bluefeet · #3 05-25-2005, 01:26 PM

Ug. My nemesis, TPxK out of a blind. So many in on the flop, I just assume be provided the opportunity to fold to a pot sized bet - but T30? Call. You picked up the open-ender on the turn. Being last to act with still an extremely passive bet/call, there could be an argument for a large reraise here. A gamble IMO, but you probably could have taken it from these two apparent drawers (adding the fact you still held TP w/ OESD, you could still improve yourself). But...continuing to just call here is not the worst thing.

River: You got your straight. But that's probably the bad news. I would check and look him up with a bet resembling no more than the bet you made. Any more and I'd just give it up and be happy I only invested T95 in the hand.

The problem with your leading out at all IMO is that you have very little to gain - and a ton (or at least T150) to lose. He stuck around this long like you for a reason. Flush, nut-straight, your straight, TPdecentK, etc. Unlikely any of these hands are going to fold to your T150. Likewise, it's quite possible that you are in fact dead. Your small bet only encourages a reraise regardless of his holdings. If he had anything short of the flush, it's conceiveable he would check it down with you.

To answer your question regarding THIS hand........I fold, and kick myself for betting the river.

Next time: semi-bluff the turn....check/call-fold the river

jon_1van · #4 05-25-2005, 01:41 PM

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Next time: semi-bluff the turn

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Rosencrantz1 · #5 05-25-2005, 01:45 PM

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The problem with your leading out at all IMO is that you have very little to gain - and a ton (or at least T150) to lose. He stuck around this long like you for a reason. Flush, nut-straight, your straight, TPdecentK, etc. Unlikely any of these hands are going to fold to your T150. Likewise, it's quite possible that you are in fact dead. Your small bet only encourages a reraise regardless of his holdings. If he had anything short of the flush, it's conceiveable he would check it down with you.

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Well, I do disagree with this. We're not interested in him folding necessarily; we just want info. Our checking is saying "hey, this missed us" and his betting after our check really tells us very little. We need to put the pressure on him to define his hand. Yeah, if we bet out on the flop he may raise it, and then perhaps we will fold. But if we just check-call we're learning way too little.

sofere · #6 05-25-2005, 01:49 PM

Yuck!

Call me weak tight, but I think this is a fold on the flop. The more I think about it, the more clearer it is IMO.

Your getting 6:1 with what would be a 4-way pot and one person left to act. What are you hoping for on the turn or river? You have TPxK with no draw on a draw heavy board. The only good thing that can happen is it goes check-check all the way to the river.

If the river gives you two pair, it could have also easily made someone's straight. If its a club, there's a good chance someone is out there with a flush draw. If a King hits, you still have no kicker and will be afraid of a better king. All calling does is leave you with very difficult decisions on the turn and river (and thats IF you hit your card...otherwise its just a waste of 30 chips)

Now the turn, your getting a little over 6:1 on an 8 outer (slightly better than 6:1) to hit a hand where 1 of those outs will complete the flush. And I still don't like just having TPNK.

The river...betting gets you no where because worse hands probably won't call (any pair, 2 pair, set will be scared of the straight and flush draws that just hit) and your in a position to lose a good deal of chips. I would check/call (folding to a bet over T150-200).

sofere · #7 05-25-2005, 01:52 PM

I'm gonna quote Lorinda 3:16 on this one...
"Do you need this pot?"

Rosencrantz1 · #8 05-25-2005, 01:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yuck!

Call me weak tight, but I think this is a fold on the flop. The more I think about it, the more clearer it is IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're weak-tight ;-)

No, seriously though. The PF betting was limped around and we saw the flop for free. What are these 6 folks limping with? I can tell you that chances are no one is sitting with a good pair and they sure as hell don't ALL have a king. More likely, with all those limps (and given our reads at the table) we're looking at unpaired high cards (AQ, AJ, QJ even) and maybe some mid-to-low pairs/suited connectors from late MP/LP.

Are we scared of a K-better kicker? Absolutely. But checking on the flop is really hurting us information-wise. If we bet out about 1/3-1/2 of the pot it's only costing us 40 and our decision making gets a lot easier: now if we're raised, we can fold (someone is telling us they have a king and better kicker, trips, 2pair, so on). If we just get called we're getting to see the turn pretty cheaply and we can re-evaluate.

You have to remember that with a flop like this there is a chance it missed everyone. There is of course a good chance we are beaten already, but for a small bet we'll get a lot of information. If we check and get a small bet after us, what then? Is that person betting because they have a hand that beats us or because they saw the table was weak?

Quick point: Had there been any action PF, I would have folded this in a heartbeat.

bluefeet · #9 05-25-2005, 01:59 PM

My "The problem with your leading out at all IMO is that you have very little to gain - and a ton (or at least T150) to lose. " comment was regarding the river. "at all..." was in regards to 'any amount'.

Yeah, I thought about leading out on the flop. I do understand that it could be useful in gathering information. The problem 6-handed is, I do know of an amount that would give you the information you need/want -- folds and/or raises. If you have no intention of calling a raiser (which I assume he wouldn't), then you're proposing a best case scenario where everyone folds (not happening), or you were simply called, by MANY perhaps. Now what? He picks up the OESD on the turn....push? Granted given the nature of this particular hand development it would have taken down the pot. What if he doesn't...assume check/fold now? Maintain your assertion?Trying to take the lead with a marginal hand, in a family pot like this is asking for trouble IMO. I'm looking for the cheapest way toward hand improvement or an exit opportunity when the pricing dictates.

bluefeet · #10 05-25-2005, 02:01 PM

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Call me weak tight, but I think this is a fold on the flop. The more I think about it, the more clearer it is IMO.

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...for the record, I would much rather choose this line over leading out on the flop here. It might even be slightly better than my OP proposal.