$30+3 AK stack size, look at me

Maulik · #1 05-19-2005, 12:02 AM

I coould call this raise but I pushed, comments?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter

Hero (t1805)
UTG (t3700)
Button (t330)
SB (t2165)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises to t800, 2 folds, UTG calls t1005.

Flop: (t2405) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

Turn: (t2405) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: (t2405) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: t2405

willie · #2 05-19-2005, 12:16 AM

iffy.....

nothing is guaranteed w/ blinds that big though so it's not hte worst thing ever.

DasLeben · #3 05-19-2005, 12:17 AM

I like it for sure.

microbet · #4 05-19-2005, 12:20 AM

Doesn't look like you have much FE here on the push. If he had pushed with even a pretty loose range, it would not be a good call.

I think a stop-n-go is better. If he had a medium PP it might be hard to call if you pushed and there were two overcards.

Or calling and just playing if you hit would be better too. That would give you like a 25% chance at the biggest stack, 70% chance you are still in good position for 3rd and 5% chance of busting. Edit: BTW, these numbers come from out my arse.

Even if he's been minraising a lot, I think it's not a good push. He only has to call 1005 and there's 2400 in the pot.

I'm not sure which I like better between stop-n-go and call-n-check/fold without improvement.

DasLeben · #5 05-19-2005, 12:23 AM

You know, I just noticed the tiny stack there. Okay, tough decision now.

Maulik · #6 05-19-2005, 12:34 AM

sorry to take so long to notice this.UTG raised, I PUSHED.

mcpherzen · #7 05-19-2005, 12:44 AM

Generally, AK is a pretty good calling hand in bubble situations because you dominate so many of the hands your opponent figures to be pushing with (any other A- or K- hands). Not here though, if the UTG big stack is playing correctly. With the button at only $330, UTG should know he has both you and the SB "pinned," to borrow a chess term, until the bubble ends with the small stack going broke. Therefore, he should be making this play with a MUCH larger range of hands than A-x and K-x. If I'm the UTG player, I make about the same play with any 2 cards. Now, your chances of dominating with your AK go way down, and therefore it is probably very incorrect to get involved here for your entire stack.

I would probably fold here, although I don't mind call-and-bet if you make a pair. Stop-n-go, assuming you miss on the flop, is pretty risky since your opponent could have any 2 cards. A J-9-6 flop may have hit him enough to call you, especailly if he smells a stop-n-go.

--Zen

Maulik · #8 05-19-2005, 01:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Generally, AK is a pretty good calling hand in bubble situations because you dominate so many of the hands your opponent figures to be pushing with (any other A- or K- hands). Not here though, if the UTG big stack is playing correctly. With the button at only $330, UTG should know he has both you and the SB "pinned," to borrow a chess term, until the bubble ends with the small stack going broke. Therefore, he should be making this play with a MUCH larger range of hands than A-x and K-x. If I'm the UTG player, I make about the same play with any 2 cards. Now, your chances of dominating with your AK go way down, and therefore it is probably very incorrect to get involved here for your entire stack.

I would probably fold here, although I don't mind call-and-bet if you make a pair. Stop-n-go, assuming you miss on the flop, is pretty risky since your opponent could have any 2 cards. A J-9-6 flop may have hit him enough to call you, especailly if he smells a stop-n-go.

--Zen

[/ QUOTE ]

in the $30+3 I don't think this is assumption, the play terribly. If I sensed the player was solid, its different. But I do not want to assume the player is SOLID.

curtains · #9 05-19-2005, 01:17 AM

I'm pretty sure you are supposed to fold here.

mcpherzen · #10 05-19-2005, 01:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If I sensed the player was solid, its different. But I do not want to assume the player is SOLID.

[/ QUOTE ]

Look...you can only do so much in the analysis of these hands. Yes, there's a chance he isn't solid at all and bases all his decision on the music he's listening to on the radio at the time. You have to go by something to make a decision, and assuming that the dude with the most chips down to 4 players and correctly pressuring the middle-stack blinds with the short stack having less than a BB left is at least SEMI-solid is a pretty good assumption, I think. And even with all that said, I still think you should be erring in the direction of being more conservative with your play here rather than too aggressive, because there is an awful lot to lose (you really shouldn't get many 4ths when you have $1800 in chips and the 4th place guy has less than a BB left).