Why Daniel May Have Been a Big Favorite.

[David Sklansky]

I barely know Mimi so this is just speculation. But what I wanted to point out is that those who thought that Mimi should beat Daniel because of her success in big holdem games may have been missing something. And I do NOT mean that she isn't used to shorthanded or tough competition. But if she hasn't played much headsup there is one specific thing she isn't used to. Namely the small blind on the button.

Even if she has lots of three handed experience it doesn't matter much because of this difference. If the button folds and she is the small blind it is correct to fold a lot more hands than it would be if you had position. A lot more. As far as raising on the button, in a three handed game, you are risking four to win three and have two opponents to contend with. Head up you are risking three to win three and are against only one opponent.

Carrying this further we see that the big blind in a three handed game can assume a bit more of a hand from the button than heads up. This allows more folds on the flop after calling a raise. In fact it allows you to avoid flops where you have absolutely nothing. But you can't do that playing headup against a headup expert. If the button has two blank cards and always raises preflop and bets the flop he will break about even against a big blind who always need something to continue on.

Ironically there is a lot of math in headup, just as in full games. There is less math in shorthanded. But in headup there are so many little pots where both players have nothing and a bluffer is getting 4-1 or so a full analysis of those situations is needed to handle them right. If Mimi didn't do this analysis but merely tried to transfer her skills as a shorthanded player to this match she was in trouble. (Again I know little about her. Maybe she has played a lot of head up. Maybe she has done extensive analysis.) Because Daniel, you can be sure, has thought a lot along these lines. He like to downplay math in his writings but I have talked to him and know better. He also is now associated with The University of Alberta's excellent head up holdem computer program so who knows how much he has learned from that.

[istewart]

Interesting.

[JihadOnTheRiver]

Mr. Sklansky,

Is anybody in the "above-human" level of poker talking about the thought that Daniel may not be 100% of this game? That is to say, maybe the Wynn itself is backing him for some "free" publicity? It would be an interesting ploy, since Daniel can't be much less than 1:1 on all of these games, but I figure if it were that way, they would be advertising the challenge more.

My only real thought on the issue is this: DN is obvious a good player with a good bit of gamble in him, but he's very smart and analytical, and HAS to know that he's probably not an odds on favorite to win against all these opponents who get to choose their own game. But could the only reason be that he craves the action and this is the only way he can get it away from the B is this offer? As it looks, he's out of the Big Game for a while.

-Jihad

[TheShootah]

This has already been discussed in great detail not only here but on Daniel's site. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[FrankLu99]

[ QUOTE ]
Interesting.

[/ QUOTE ]
indeed.

i would not be surprised if Mimi did some research before playing or tried to level up her HU skills. She probably had Barry power level her hand reading skills and aggression factor.

[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[srw5n]

David-

For lack of a better expression, duh.

Yes, that is heads up poker. Anyone with even a remedial understand of nature of heads up poker understands these basic concepts. I can't imagine Mimi Tran went into a game of heads up limit poker with absolutely no idea of the fundementals of the game.

The reality is heads up is far different from ultra short and you need to push small edges and draws hard. While I know nothing of Mimi Tran, I do know she plays regularly online heads up and short handed.

If she honestly play as "a big blind who always need something to continue on" then she would be giving the game away. I can't imagine that someone who is even moderately intelligent wouldn't recognize this. Clearly she is going to reraise liberally from the BB, play unimproved A-x hard, and make all the other necessary adjustments for heads up limit holdem.

Your comment seems tantamount to saying, "maybe she didn't understand the game she was playing." Because the items you've pointed out are as basic as they come in heads up limit holdem.

Do you honestly thing she didn't understand the game she way playing?

-srw

[ QUOTE ]
Do you honestly thing she didn't understand the game she way playing?

[/ QUOTE ]

It sounds like David is questioning Barry Greenstein's preparation of Mimi for this match.

[Stork]

[ QUOTE ]
He also is now associated with The University of Alberta's excellent head up holdem computer program so who knows how much he has learned from that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can anyone elaborate on this program or give a link to something discussing/explaining it?

[barycentric]

Google works well enough.

[Beavis68]

[ QUOTE ]
I barely know Mimi so this is just speculation. But what I wanted to point out is that those who thought that Mimi should beat Daniel because of her success in big holdem games may have been missing something. And I do NOT mean that she isn't used to shorthanded or tough competition. But if she hasn't played much headsup there is one specific thing she isn't used to. Namely the small blind on the button.

Even if she has lots of three handed experience it doesn't matter much because of this difference. If the button folds and she is the small blind it is correct to fold a lot more hands than it would be if you had position. A lot more. As far as raising on the button, in a three handed game, you are risking four to win three and have two opponents to contend with. Head up you are risking three to win three and are against only one opponent.

Carrying this further we see that the big blind in a three handed game can assume a bit more of a hand from the button than heads up. This allows more folds on the flop after calling a raise. In fact it allows you to avoid flops where you have absolutely nothing. But you can't do that playing headup against a headup expert. If the button has two blank cards and always raises preflop and bets the flop he will break about even against a big blind who always need something to continue on.

Ironically there is a lot of math in headup, just as in full games. There is less math in shorthanded. But in headup there are so many little pots where both players have nothing and a bluffer is getting 4-1 or so a full analysis of those situations is needed to handle them right. If Mimi didn't do this analysis but merely tried to transfer her skills as a shorthanded player to this match she was in trouble. (Again I know little about her. Maybe she has played a lot of head up. Maybe she has done extensive analysis.) Because Daniel, you can be sure, has thought a lot along these lines. He like to downplay math in his writings but I have talked to him and know better. He also is now associated with The University of Alberta's excellent head up holdem computer program so who knows how much he has learned from that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Too me, you look quite pathetic commenting on a game you won't play. Put up or shut up.