How's this raise/fold?

hotbacon · #1 05-16-2005, 05:46 PM

Don't have much info on the players other than MP2, who is extremely aggressive (doesn't show it this hand though...).

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Omaha/8 (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks, CO bets, Hero raises, BB folds, UTG folds, MP2 calls, CO 3-bets, Hero folds, MP2 calls.

I'll post my thoughts in a little bit.

templar999 · #2 05-16-2005, 06:09 PM

bacon,

i think check raising the flop might have been the worst option. your top two pair is likely to be in bad shape against 4 players. even if it is the best hand, every card in the deck that's not an ace on the turn hurts you.

i think i'd check/call or check/fold the flop. see what happens and who bets? if BB bets, you can call and close the action. if MP1 bets and CO calls, you can be pretty sure your hand is no good and just wait for the next one. if CO bets like he did, since BB and MP1 havent shown any aggression, you probably wont get raised. even if you do, you can still let it go for one small bet. obviously if anyone raised before it gets to you, you'd let this one go right?

hotbacon · #3 05-16-2005, 06:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
bacon,

i think check raising the flop might have been the worst option. your top two pair is likely to be in bad shape against 4 players. even if it is the best hand, every card in the deck that's not an ace on the turn hurts you.

[/ QUOTE ]

At the time I was thinking that I would check and if MP2 bets, raise. If it was bet/raised or bet/called, I would definetely give it up. However, once CO bet, I thought he may be stealing or maybe even betting something like KK. So, since my hand really can't stand to not be heads up, I raised. Also, I figured if he did have me beat, I still had my emergency low and 2 ace outs. But once MP2 calls and CO 3bets, I know I'm dead in both directions.

[ QUOTE ]

i think i'd check/call or check/fold the flop. see what happens and who bets? if BB bets, you can call and close the action. if MP1 bets and CO calls, you can be pretty sure your hand is no good and just wait for the next one. if CO bets like he did, since BB and MP1 havent shown any aggression, you probably wont get raised. even if you do, you can still let it go for one small bet. obviously if anyone raised before it gets to you, you'd let this one go right?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, if someone bets, no one calls, and I'm closing the action, I'm definately calling here. That was actually my original intention with the hand. But since the bet came from CO, I think I should either raise/fold here? I guess folding here would have been my best option?

templar999 · #4 05-16-2005, 07:24 PM

the problem with raising the CO is that not only will you not get a better hand to fold, but you also expose yourself to a three bet. not being able to see the turn for two bets was probably the worst case scenario by far. i think avoiding this at all costs should be your most important goal on the flop. raising was the one way to wind up there. calling costs you one bet at most, given that you fold on any raise. folding costs you equity. whichever one is less painful in your opinion is the way to go.

gergery · #5 05-16-2005, 09:19 PM

I think check-raising is the worst choice. You won’t get anyone with a T to fold, and anyone who doesn’t have a T you want to stay in the pot.

With 4 random opponents, the chances that one of them was dealt Txxx or 44xx is about 60%. Since people might not play that without other cards, you can discount that somewhat, but it give you an idea of just how likely it is that you are beat.

I modeled out some numbers here and depending on what exact assumptions you want to make, check-calling does best if your opponents have you beat 50% or less of the time. If you are beat more than 50% of the time, then betting out and folding to a raise is best. Check-raising is only good if you want to make absolutely sure you’re beat, but that’s an expensive way to find out about something that will happen fairly often.

--Greg

PokerProdigy · #6 05-16-2005, 10:29 PM

I don't really like the raise, because there's a good chance you're up against a 10 in Omaha/8.

Ironman · #7 05-17-2005, 09:22 AM

I know this answer is probably not going to be popular, but I think you throw this in the muck preflop.

When I look at this hand with this many preflop callers, I see a hand with two outs. And with this many people calling preflop it is very likely your two outs (the two remaining Aces are in your opponents hands.

I can't remember if it was Buzz or Greg that ran the numbers on how unprofitable these rainbow A A hands are. If you change that 5 to a 3 or 4...then I might give it a look, but the low just isn't there with a five.

Dave

JoshuaMayes · #8 05-17-2005, 09:47 AM

He only had to complete from the small blind. You don't think AA5 is worth half of a small bet when getting 9:1? I would complete with a lot of hands trashier than his.

Ironman · #9 05-17-2005, 10:18 AM

Absolutely...my bad. I can't think of any situation where I wouldn't complete the small blind.

Ok, now that I'm on the same page...I wouldn't raise with this many people in the hand. It's a trap hand that just costs you money.

Sorry for that.

Dave

sammy_g · #10 05-18-2005, 04:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
With 4 random opponents, the chances that one of them was dealt Txxx or 44xx is about 60%.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I modeled out some numbers here and depending on what exact assumptions you want to make, check-calling does best if your opponents have you beat 50% or less of the time. If you are beat more than 50% of the time, then betting out and folding to a raise is best.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, I usually check-fold here against 4 opponents. Is that a leak?