can't decide if this is an obvious call or an obvious fold

[jfletcher]

Final table of a 2-table SNG 10+1, top 4 paid. I am the big stack, and have been stealing a lot of blinds lately.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (5 handed) converter

Hero (t10975)
SB (t2530)
BB (t905)
UTG (t2204)
MP (t3386)

MP is pretty loose and aggressive. SB is nothing out of the ordinary.

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] .
1 fold, MP calls t300, Hero raises to t1200, SB reraises all-in to t2530, 1 fold, MP reraises all-in to t3386, Hero ????

If my math is right, I needed to call 1886 for a pot of 6816, which is about 3.5 to 1, right? If I call and win, I'll have 16591 chips with only 3 players left. If I call and lose, I could be down to 7889 and I would have lost the lead. If I fold, I still have a sizeable lead with 9775 chips and most likely one of the players gone to put us all in the money.

I did a test on poker stove and this is what I came up with.

For SB, who was getting shortstacked and probably tired of my bullying, I put him on any PP, any AXs and AXo down to A6. Also KQs and KQo.

For MP, considering the limp reraise all-in against another all-in, I figured he had to have AA-JJ, AKs or AKo.

The equity results...
Me 26.7 pct.
SB 23.6 pct.
MP 49.5 pct.

That looks to me like I was a 3-1 dog, so does that mean calling is correct when the pot giving 3.5 to 1? Or is it better in this case just to sit back and let the other two duke it out.

Also, maybe someone who understand ICM better can give me an analysis from that perspective. There were 20K chips in play. $80 for 1st, $60 for 2nd, $40 for 3rd, $20 for 4th.

Interested to hear your opinions on this (especially Gigabet's).

[Freudian]

Fold. If you are lucky 2-3 overcards may hurt you, if you are unlucky one of them has an overpair.

[curtains]

I would call. Maybe it's very slightly -ev chipwise but I'd call anyway, because if you get lucky you basically clinch first place.

[curtains]

by the way, do not make raises like 1200 if you plan to fold to these reraises. You don't want to put yourself in a situation where it's this close to you between calling and folding. Just move allin, or raise some completely pot committing amount here. OR if you can raise an amount where you will have a clear conscience folding, then do that. Unfortunately that's not really possible here.

[Newt_Buggs]

definitly raise more pf and completely pot commit yourself. In this situation I think I would fold though. I don't know what the payouts are on this tournament, but I wouldn't be surprised if calling is + chip EV but not +$EV

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
definitly raise more pf and completely pot commit yourself. In this situation I think I would fold though. I don't know what the payouts are on this tournament, but I wouldn't be surprised if calling is + chip EV but not +$EV

[/ QUOTE ]

If calling here is +chip EV it's almost surely +$EV.

[jfletcher]

I actually thought 1200 was a pretty good amount. It was 4X the BB, so it had a chance to take the pot down right there, but it still left me with a good sized stack if I had to fold.

[curtains]

but the point is that it makes it a very very close decision between calling and folding. I don't like to make a raise here that makes it such a close decision after I'm reraised. I like it to be easy, meaning I can fold with no regrets or I simply have to call. It's nearly impossible to make a raise where you would have no regrets folding to a reraise in this scenario however.

[jfletcher]

anyone else want to take a stab at this?

[shejk]

Call. And I think you should put MP on a broader range besides.