MOST out of the money in a ROW???

[raptor517]

well, tonight was by far, the worst night of poker in my entire life. i played great as far as i can tell, i reviewed a couple HH's, ran some numbers, made sure i was playing correctly, but it just didnt work out. in a game dominated by coinflips and relying on people to fold trash that the end up calling with and sucking out with, you can go a lot of games without making the money. if someone told me last week that a solid, 10% + roi player could go more than 20 sngs without making the money, i would have laughed in his face.

so anyways, here is a poll, just for fun i guess, since i better quit right now before i destroy my bankroll in step 5s or something. bleh. oh yea, i have gone 22 ootm now without makin money. if anyone has ever done worse, may god have mercy on your soul.

[raptor517]

oh, and a ps, my PREVIOUS worst was 14. quite a big jump if you ask me.. sigh. ggs life. holla

[Jimbobobb]

I've definitely done it, sometimes it just happens. As a coincidence, today was also my worst day of poker ever. I feel for you sir, but don't worry, if you're playing the game well you'll come out of it.

Nights like this suck btw:

4
4
4
4
4
7
4
4
4
5
4
4
4

Then I threw my mouse at the monitor and played Taiko Drummaster for 3 hours cause I needed to hit things. I highly recommend this game for bad sessions.

[raptor517]

ddr is good too. too bad im too mad to do anything but rant, rave, and break stuff. holla

[michw]

17 in a row is my personal best. Sample size is about 1100 Party 30+3's. Out of my 17, however, I made a couple horrendous mistakes.

[Bigwig]

My longest, I believe, in almost 4000 is 12. Maybe 13. My second longest is 8 or 9. I've been very blessed with not having too many long OTM streaks. Of course, I've still had very bad runs of 200 or so SNGs. Just not a lot of long consecutive OTM streaks.

[LeVoodoo]

[ QUOTE ]
Nights like this suck btw:

4
4
4
4
4
7
4
4
4
5
4
4
4

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, that looks eerily familiar. Out of 80 tournies yesterday, i went out 4th 35 times. It was depressing.

[DonButtons]

rigged

[Degen]

sorry dude, big limin was sayin last night that there is no way a winning player could drop more than 30 buy-ins in 100 tourneys w/out playing badly in the process...

me and you have both had some horrendous runs over the last week or two (though mine a bit more spread out than this hotness)...lets hope he's wrong.


keep yer head up man, you'll pull out of it.


Andre

[AleoMagus]

This reply is not just for you Raptor, but also for many others who I am sure have felt much the same as you do now (though probably not to the tune of 22 OTMs!)

Like it or not, the odds that a run like this is just really bad variance, is really really small.

Statments like:

[ QUOTE ]
in a game dominated by coinflips and relying on people to fold trash that the end up calling with and sucking out with, you can go a lot of games without making the money.

[/ QUOTE ]

while somewhat true, often tend to obfuscate the truth that you are currently faced with. You probably brought a lot of that streak on yourself whether you like it or not. The odds of it happening otherwise are just so remote.

In fact, lets just assume that you are a 36% ITM player and take a look at how remote.

0.64^22=0.0000544, or 1/18367

Ok, so not that bad I guess. Considering the amount some of you play, I guess this might even be expected in the course of a couple years play. Still, it's remote enough to at least consider that in the latter stages of the streak some poor plays and frustration were clouding judgement.

Remember also that I used 36% as a low estimate considering some of the stakes that you play. If ITM is higher than this, the chances get much slimmer real quick.

I once had a streak of 7 4th place finishes which I though was just bad luck until I plugged the numbers on it. At the time, I was getting 4th about 15%.

0.15^7=0.0000017, or 1/588235

So, looking at that, I could expect this every 588235 tourneys. Not likely that it was just due to chance.

Don't get me wrong, it certainly is possible that it was just due to chance, but the cahnces are remote enough to give me pause. This is what I am suggesting to you as well.

Looking at some of the other posts in this thread like the list of almost all 4ths and the 35/100 4ths, I can tell you that the chances of these streaks is just so slim that you have to start looking at what went on to bring it about. As I said, it's possible it's just an anomaly, but it's more likely that it is self delusion.

I am NOT saying that any of you might be bad at poker or that you might be a loser or any other thing like that. I suspect that you already know otherwise or you don't. I am just saying that if you dropped 6 of those buy-ins out of tilt, and that if you do something like this every few hundred tourneys (not 22 OTM, just a few uneccessary losses) then it has a real effect on your bottom line and can be as big a leak as any other.

Regards
Brad S