Steal with JTo

Nick Royale · #1 05-11-2005, 03:07 PM

UTG is 30/16/?.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 6 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG 3-bets, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG 3-bets, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (9.25 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls, BB calls.

River: (12.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls...

brettbrettr · #2 05-11-2005, 03:10 PM

I'd probably just fold this pre-flop. UTG seems like an aggressive player, and I don't want to get involved with j-high with an aggressive player. Rather have something I could showdown.

meep_42 · #3 05-11-2005, 03:12 PM

I think you can fold the river.
Folding the turn wouldn't be that terrible, either. (the 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] look dirty, giving you 5 outs, 2 of which may not win anyway.) I wouldn't fold, but I wouldn't think it was terrible if you had.

-d

LImitPlayer · #4 05-11-2005, 03:44 PM

This isn't a steal with UTG in the hand.

I'd play the flop the same way as you have a gutshot for the straight.

I would probably raise the turn here as the LAG could be betting a wide range of hands. Raising might also get the BB to fold which would be a big plus in this situation. IF the BB is on a draw you want to charge him the max to see that river, It also might get the lag to slow down a bit.

I don't like The BB cold calling 2 on the flop.

IF they call your turn raise I would check the river and get a free showdown.

If you are succesful in knocking the BB out I would still check the river if checked to you.

If you are 3 bet on the turn I would probably fold the river unimproved.

Nick Royale · #5 05-11-2005, 04:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This isn't a steal with UTG in the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
I know. Indirect it sets up for a flop steal, though.

New001 · #6 05-11-2005, 05:36 PM

30% vpip isn't too high, especially if it's a smallish sample. JTo is a dog to too many of his possible holdings for me to raise here.

Nick Royale · #7 05-11-2005, 05:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
30% vpip isn't too high, especially if it's a smallish sample. JTo is a dog to too many of his possible holdings for me to raise here.

[/ QUOTE ]
My raise here is more like standard than b/c of his vpip. I might be a dog to some of his holdings but many of these will he give up when I bet the flop. I'm interested in more opinions on the preflop raise, but I think I like it.

This is a great thread. Check it out!

brazilio · #8 05-11-2005, 06:08 PM

Myself I prefer to isolate with something a little bit better than JTo against a 30% VP$IPer, but I'm not folding that river against a LRR. I think I like it a lot better against a guy who has a lower WtSD regardless of VP$IP, as he'll fold the flop enough to easily make this profitable.

Nick Royale · #9 05-11-2005, 06:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think I like it a lot better against a guy who has a lower WtSD regardless of VP$IP, as he'll fold the flop enough to easily make this profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]
WtSD is great when you're about to judge what player to isolate, but it demands that you have tons of hands on the player which I hadn't.

brazilio · #10 05-11-2005, 07:05 PM

Then I think I fold this. I've been wavering back and forth on this one, because occasionally I'll do it, but I think JTo is a bit too weak when I have no idea how often he's seeing showdown and I have little idea he's going to fold the flop.