On a Draw

NYCNative · #1 05-11-2005, 05:14 AM

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) converter

UTG (t1840)
UTG+1 (t1995)
MP1 (t1260)
MP2 (t1320)
MP3 (t1570)
NYCNative (t3115)
Button (t2390)
SB (t1200)
BB (t310)

Preflop: NYCNative is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t60, 3 folds, NYCNative calls t60, 1 fold, SB calls t45, BB calls t30.

Flop: (t240) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets t120, NYCNative calls t120, SB folds, BB folds.

Turn: (t480) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 bets t300, NYCNative...

Jason Strasser · #2 05-11-2005, 06:46 AM

Its a math problem. You are obviously not getting the odds you need to chase for a club, but will your opponent pay you off? If you think you will get better than about 4:1 on your call (including implied odds obviously) then do it, otherwise its an easy muck. Against a good player its likely an easy fold as most will not pay you off. Against a bad player here who will go broke then call. Stacks arent PartyPoker shallow here either.

-Jason

Scuba Chuck · #3 05-11-2005, 07:57 AM

Unless you have this burning desire to be the one who "knocks people out" I fold this preflop. I know you've got the table chip lead, and you can 'afford' to play this hand. But anything that leaks chips early and takes away from bully/big stack play late is not all that great for the bankroll. That doesn't mean I don't play more hands this early with your kind of stack, because I do.

With regard to your OP, I think that you need to assume the impetus and raise, or fold. I prefer the fold. I don't think that villain is going anywhere if you raise. And as Strassa said, I'm not always confident my club draw will be paid off.

NYCNative · #4 05-11-2005, 08:07 AM

Say the turn looked like this instead:[ QUOTE ]
Turn: (t480) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 bets t300, NYCNative...

[/ QUOTE ]

mikeyKay · #5 05-11-2005, 08:25 AM

i really dont like being the first to cold call the raise pre flop from a seemingly aggressive opponent. judging from the way the hand played out, it seems like this guy has some idea about what he is doing. fold pre-flop, you prolly wont be able to play your draw cheaply, and you A might be dominated.

-mike

NYCNative · #6 05-11-2005, 08:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i really dont like being the first to cold call the raise pre flop from a seemingly aggressive opponent. judging from the way the hand played out, it seems like this guy has some idea about what he is doing. fold pre-flop, you prolly wont be able to play your draw cheaply, and you A might be dominated.

[/ QUOTE ]I called it because I had position and it was a minimum raise and an A-x suited is the kind of hand that I have won a lot more money with than lost because I have the ability to get away from top pair, crap kicker.

I didn't get the feeling that this player was good, that a minimum raise in early position meant a possible monster. From him I tought it meant "marginal hand most people would fold in bad position or maybe limp in to see a flop with."

His betting after the flop isn't consistant either since his lead-in bet was always a teaster 1/2 or 2/3-pot size variety. He could have been slow-playing his monster and keeping the price to chase just above the threshold of profitability, but again, I didn't get that feeling. This was a tournament and if I catch he can't buy another rack. I think he was scared I had him beat.

(I could have tested this theory with a raise after the flop or turn but chose not to because I was trying to consider my outs and odds and neglected to consider whether I could simply push him off his hand.)

I thought he had a Jack which gave me another three outs with the Ace since I didn't think he had AJ or he would have come at me harder.

Scuba Chuck · #7 05-11-2005, 08:49 AM

Even if you change the turn card to a double draw, I'm not completely positive that villain will pay you off. This straight draw, if completed, or the flush draw if completed, are both obvious. Once again, your decision to play these hands weighs far more on your ability to get paid off by villain if you complete. That's why I suggest you consider betting if you want to play. If you believe that by assuming the control of this hand by reraising, and there's a 35+% chance villain could/would fold, then I think that is the best line. That being said, I don't think villain is going away if you raise here.

mikeyKay · #8 05-11-2005, 08:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i really dont like being the first to cold call the raise pre flop from a seemingly aggressive opponent. judging from the way the hand played out, it seems like this guy has some idea about what he is doing. fold pre-flop, you prolly wont be able to play your draw cheaply, and you A might be dominated.

[/ QUOTE ]
I called it because I had position and it was a minimum raise and an A-x suited is the kind of hand that I have won a lot more money with than lost because I have the ability to get away from top pair, crap kicker.

[/ QUOTE ]

Once this guy raises what really matters is your relative position, not actual position. being the first to act after him is not where you want to be...you no longer have position.

i just think there is too much risk, with not enough reward for this play, and you have to play the hand really well to make it work.

-mike

NYCNative · #9 05-11-2005, 08:58 AM

Deciding that I had the stack to gamble a bit and thinking I had three extra outs with the Aces, I called. I hit J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] which was a little frightening. However, it turned out to be the perfect card in that it gave him trips but not a boat so he did pay me off. If it wasn't for his relatively weak turn bet and my chip stack and the fact I was drawing to the nuts, I wouldn't have called, I don't think.

Phil Van Sexton · #10 05-11-2005, 10:35 AM

Raise the flop.