Hmm, maybe someone else has a flush too?

mute · #1 05-10-2005, 06:20 PM

Was I spewing here?

MP1 is LAG, but not wildly aggressive postflop (Postflop aggression about 1.5). BB is a donk.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO calls, 2 folds, BB checks.

Flop: (5.33 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, CO folds, BB calls.

Turn: (4.66 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, UTG+2 folds, MP1 3-bets, BB calls, Hero caps, MP1 calls, BB calls.

River: (16.66 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets

toss · #2 05-10-2005, 06:22 PM

I like it. MP1 could be getting crazy with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

brazilio · #3 05-10-2005, 06:29 PM

I think that's not a bad cap at all, I bet and call a raise on the river, and I especially like the BB in there padding the pot.

meep_42 · #4 05-10-2005, 06:31 PM

BB - rag 2 pair, MP1 - set or T8.

You win!
Nice hand.

-d

Pokey · #5 05-10-2005, 06:36 PM

Preflop is standard.
Flop is standard.

Turn looks good to me: BB and/or MP1 could be playing a wide variety of hands you beat, such as

A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Weaker flush
Any set
Either straight

BB could even be leading this turn with two pair.

There are eight remaining clubs in the deck. It is theoretically possible that one of these guys has two of them. If so, three of the clubs make a better flush and five make a weaker one, so the odds that another flush is weaker than yours is (5/8)*(5/8) = 25/64 = 39.1%. Thus, even in the unlikely event that there is another flush out there, you STILL have enough pot equity to cap the turn. Against anything but a made flush, you're way ahead here.

Both turn bets are for value.

River is a total safe card, and many, many hands will call. If MP1 raises you, call and see the showdown. You still win very often here. However, I don't like reraising this river just because a river raise makes another flush quite likely, and at that point your chance of being ahead is a bit too small to jam the pot, especially if BB folds.

NomadCat · #6 05-10-2005, 06:54 PM

I really like the turn cap. Much like set-over-set, it takes me a bit to worry about a bigger flush being out there. And if there is, it doesn't have to be bigger than J-high. I wouldn't be surprised to see a slow-played set or a turned straight. I would definitely bet the river and call a raise.

Piiop · #7 05-10-2005, 07:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
There are eight remaining clubs in the deck. It is theoretically possible that one of these guys has two of them. If so, three of the clubs make a better flush and five make a weaker one, so the odds that another flush is weaker than yours is (5/8)*(5/8) = 25/64 = 39.1%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pokey, I don't understand what you mean with 5/8*5/8.

The remaining clubs are the A, K, Q, 8, 6, 5, 4, 2. There are 28 possible combos - 18 of these combos beat the Hero, 10 do not (Behind 64% of the time, ahead 36%). Also, since the turn 3-better was a limper, and not in a blind, it's more likely he has Axc/Kxc/Qxc.

AK, AQ, A8, A6, A5, A4, A2, KQ, K8, K6, K5, K4, K2, Q8, Q6, Q5, Q4, Q2 all beat the Hero.

86, 85, 84, 82, 65, 64, 62, 54, 52, 42 lose to the Hero.

Now, we can also weight the probability of this player having each hand. It's less likely he has AK/AQ/KQ since he probably would've raised preflop, and it's unlikely he limped with some of those worse hands (depends on his looseness), but we'd lose some hands from each side and the ratio would probably end up the same or very close.

It's still true that the turn is an raise and cap because there are other hands the opponents could possibly have. However, out of the possible flushes, Hero is behind more often than not.

KDawgCometh · #8 05-10-2005, 07:33 PM

MP1 being a LAG(although he's not overtly aggressive postflop) does lead me to believe that he hit a set, two pair, or some from of a straight with either 108 or 85. While it would suck if you're up against a bigger flush, it happens so rarely that I just chalk it up to bad timing. You didn't overdo the turn at all. Your flop bet may make MP1 think that you weren't on a flush draw, but a pair and now he has you smoked

Pokey · #9 05-10-2005, 07:40 PM

Piiop: you're right and I'm wrong. I've made two math posts today and I got them both wrong. Booo!

I did the math with redraws, which (of course) there aren't in a poker deck. It should have been (5/8)*(4/7) = 20/56 = 35.7% likely you're ahead with a flush (as you correctly pointed out) instead of 39.1% that I originally stated. The conclusions are not changed by my math error, though.

You also make a good point about likely preflop raises with the best of these suited connector hands; we can probably rule out AK, AQ, and KQ on the grounds that this player (aggressive preflop by OP's observations) would likely have raised them before the hand started. Depending on just how high his PFR% is, we might even rule out A8 or K8. All of these changes modestly boost the odds that we're ahead given the second flush, but not enough to change any of the analysis.

Piiop got the math right in his correction, but I still stand by my conclusions in my original post: I don't think the decisions weren't close enough to be swayed by these corrections.

bobbyi · #10 05-10-2005, 08:35 PM

I like it. When you cap, BB has already called the three-bet. It's unlikely he is folding for one more bet, so you are getting 2:1 on your money here. That's definitely profitable. Sometimes you're against a bigger flush and sometimes you will lose on the river, but you are still easily winning this pot more than a third of the time.