The board is 789TJ....

chopper77 · #1 05-08-2005, 02:19 PM

This is a bizarre hand, and maybe posting it won't be too helpful because it's not a situation someone sees very often.

I am posting it though because I'm trying to find a good balance of aggression/discretion. I tend to play like a maniac at times and it doesn't much help my bankroll. Trying to tone it down just a tad bit.

First hand at the table no reads.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.5.
2 folds, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, MP1 caps, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (17.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero 3-bets, MP1 caps, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Standard?

He's unknown and has capped both streets so I'm guessing KK or QQ.

Turn: (16.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

He's still raising like a nut so I figure it's probably about time to take my foot off the gas. OK?!

River: (24.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, MP2 raises, MP3 folds, Hero ??

OK, best case scenario I'm betting 2 to win 9 and chop. There's a good chance a Q is out there, it seems like a relatively easy call, but I'm not closing the action either.

Is this an easy call?

Final Pot: 28.75 BB

kapw7 · #2 05-08-2005, 02:25 PM

That was really unlucky to have your aces busted liked that in a huge pot. Fold and go for the next hand.

sin808 · #3 05-08-2005, 02:26 PM

big pot but I don't think your good here often enough to call, especially not closing the action. Curse & fold.

bottomset · #4 05-08-2005, 02:28 PM

unless MP1 has QQ, i doubt he's got the queen, MP2 is trickier .. its a huge pot, and ppl might take a stab to increase from 3way to 2way splits

Buckmulligan · #5 05-08-2005, 02:30 PM

I think I may check the turn and reevalutate things when it comes back around. The bet on the turn is a spew, though.

FishHooks · #6 05-08-2005, 02:36 PM

Fold this, learn not to get married to pocket A's, its ok to fold when you know your beat, especially when your not closing out the action.

olavfo · #7 05-08-2005, 02:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Is this an easy call?

[/ QUOTE ]
If it's not raised behind you, you're risking 2 bets to win 1/3 of the 27.75 BB that are in the pot before you act. You get pot odds 9.25 : 2 = 4.63 : 1. You need to chop more than 18% of the time to profit from calling.

If the river gets capped, you're risking 4 BB to win 9.25 BB, so the pot odds are 9.25 : 4 = 2.31 : 1. You now need to chop more than 30% of the time.

Let's roughly guesstimate that you need to split the pot around 25% of the time on average to break even. Against two opponents it seems unreasonable that one of them should have a queen (or queens) more than 75% of the time, so to me it looks like you have pot odds to call.

Disclaimer: I'm not good at river play, so take this with a pinch of salt.

olavfo

kapw7 · #8 05-08-2005, 03:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
unless MP1 has QQ, i doubt he's got the queen, MP2 is trickier .. its a huge pot, and ppl might take a stab to increase from 3way to 2way splits

[/ QUOTE ]
We can add JJ to MP1's possible hands... But MP2 is the mystery. He most likely has a draw: flush draw or straight draw. He is possibly raising the river to eliminate as it is obvious that hero has AA/KK. I know I would.
But can hero risk calling 2 BB with the possibilty of having to pay another 2 BB to win a third of the pot?

Fantam · #9 05-08-2005, 03:17 PM

I didnt like the look of the flop and when the turn came I would have checked and folded, possibly cursing why my AA had not held up.

Its just too likely that you are beaten by the turn in this instance. Also, even though a J fell on the river, I think you are still beaten.

You shouldnt fold decent hands for 1 more bet, so you were correct to continue on the flop. But I wouldnt have 3 bet as you could easily have already been behind, and if not there were a lot of cards that could have come to strong draws to also beat you. I would have been hoping to see a safe card come on the turn and then evaluate my hand again.

But I dont think you have a decent hand from the turn onwards.

chopper77 · #10 05-08-2005, 04:46 PM

Quote:

I didnt like the look of the flop and when the turn came I would have checked and folded, possibly cursing why my AA had not held up.

Its just too likely that you are beaten by the turn in this instance. Also, even though a J fell on the river, I think you are still beaten.

This sounds really really weak tight. I don't think 3 betting is spewing at all, the guy was ramming and jamming preflop as well, and with no reads I'd still put the guy on KK or QQ 65-70% of the time.

If I had to play it again I'd probably check the turn and call down within reason because he's acting nuts, the pot is big and I still think I have a shot at it, but without reads I have no idea what I'm up against and I'm not gonna cut AA in a spot like this.