Fold or pay off against unknown opponent?

olavfo · #1 05-07-2005, 12:51 PM

My fourth hand at this table, so let's assume villain is your generic microlimit opponent.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG calls, Hero calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, Button checks.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB 3-bets, BB folds, UTG folds, Hero?

After villain's 3-bet the pot is 9.5 BB. Assuming villain bets the river I must risk 2 BB to win 11.5 BB. The effective odds are 5.75 : 1, so I need to win a showdown 15% of the time.

The fact that he checks both flop and turn, makes me suspect he has an ace with a marginal kicker (he didn't raise preflop), but is afraid of the flush, but when he 3-bets I'm confused. When BB and UTG fold, the situation becomes a little easier, but I'm still not sure whether to pay off or fold.

Comments?

olavfo

@bsolute_luck · #2 05-07-2005, 12:55 PM

why didn't you raise preflop?
why didn't you bet the flop?

SB 3-bet? i think you're done and wouldn't even be suprised to see a 45 straight. i'd just call down. it is 1 back to you and no one else is in the hand to keep ramming you.

NateDog · #3 05-07-2005, 12:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
My fourth hand at this table, so let's assume villain is your generic microlimit opponent.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG calls, Hero calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, Button checks.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB 3-bets, BB folds, UTG folds, Hero?

After villain's 3-bet the pot is 9.5 BB. Assuming villain bets the river I must risk 2 BB to win 11.5 BB. The effective odds are 5.75 : 1, so I need to win a showdown 15% of the time.

The fact that he checks both flop and turn, makes me suspect he has an ace with a marginal kicker (he didn't raise preflop), but is afraid of the flush, but when he 3-bets I'm confused. When BB and UTG fold, the situation becomes a little easier, but I'm still not sure whether to pay off or fold.

Comments?

olavfo

[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that he checked the flop and c/r'd the turn makes me think 'monster' not 'weak ace', assuming typical party player.

Ugh, I missed the lack of PF raise.

olavfo · #4 05-07-2005, 01:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
why didn't you raise preflop?
why didn't you bet the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's my thinking:

I'm not very fond of raising AJo from early position, unless I know I have mostly tight players to my left. I don't think that makes a big difference in the long run though.

I check the flop to see where I'm at. I plan to fold if there's much aggression and reevaluate the situation on the turn if it's checked around.

It may be better to probe with a bet on the flop and fold to aggression, but if villain is slowplaying a flush, he will probably just call and I'm no wiser.

olavfo

@bsolute_luck · #5 05-07-2005, 01:07 PM

well that all may be true, but now you're faced with a 3-bet and are confused. since you figure you didn't know where you were on the flop, i can only see you assuming the same on the turn since the 3 can only help a 45 or some random 2 pair holding, but you think he is really 3-betting that?

i'm saying since you went into the hand feared with AJ, then fold.

Dave G. · #6 05-07-2005, 01:08 PM

Bad PF limp. If you're going to play this you need to raise, the whole hand changes after that. If you don't want to play it this early, fold.

Bet the flop too. Why play so passively?

I'd fold the turn, you've let these people draw at you for free and you have no clue what they have or where you stand.

Dave G. · #7 05-07-2005, 01:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not very fond of raising AJo from early position, unless I know I have mostly tight players to my left. I don't think that makes a big difference in the long run though.

[/ QUOTE ]

What sort of flops are you hoping for with this hand? Big unsuited cards don't have a lot of multiway value. You need to raise to thin the field.

McGahee · #8 05-07-2005, 01:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not very fond of raising AJo from early position, unless I know I have mostly tight players to my left. I don't think that makes a big difference in the long run though.

[/ QUOTE ]

What sort of flops are you hoping for with this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think an A or a J would've been good.
Limping is fine with this.

droolie · #9 05-07-2005, 01:16 PM

I would've bet the flop. I fold to that C/R. I don't think you win this hand 10%.

olavfo · #10 05-07-2005, 01:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Bad PF limp. If you're going to play this you need to raise, the whole hand changes after that. If you don't want to play it this early, fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hmmm ... agreed, I just made problems for myself by limping. Now when I think about it, it's embarrasingly weak.

Raise preflop, bet flop if checked to, and reevaluate the situation if I'm faced with agression. That would be better.

olavfo