Did I let go of this hand to soon?

chipolino · #1 05-06-2005, 03:21 PM

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, Hero raises, MP3 calls, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, MP3 calls, CO folds, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 3-bets, Hero caps, MP3 calls, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (14.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero folds, MP3 calls, BB calls. Any ideas of how to proceed here?

River: (17.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets, MP3 folds, BB raises, MP1 calls.

Final Pot: 21.25 BB

droolie · #2 05-06-2005, 03:26 PM

I don't like it. The pot is too big to give him credit for the set. He could have an overpair you beat or be pumping a str8 and picked up a flush draw on the turn. The A has me concerned that one of the callers has me beat now though. I'd probably call the turn and hold my breath that no one raises.

toss · #3 05-06-2005, 03:53 PM

Villain led the turn Ace turn after Hero capped on the flop. The pot is big, but I think we're beat here.

@bsolute_luck · #4 05-06-2005, 03:56 PM

what about the flop cap? is that too much?

you have a read on him at all? loose enough to play 86? what about pumping a straight draw? does he simply limp in with TT or JJ or even higher?

i get nervous when typical players 3-bet on a flop like this. usually it is a set or rag 2pair, but it could be higher pair. i think i'd call the 3-bet on the flop, but villain keeps going on an Ace turn? unless he is loco or LAG, i think we're toast.

Grail · #5 05-06-2005, 04:04 PM

I would actually be all kinds of happy when he bet allowing you to raise and face the field with 2 cold. But then something bad happened, 2 callers and a 3-bet. The cap is still probubly good since you are fairly likely to still be best.

If he has 2P you can still win by spiking a Q, or pairing the board. It's at least 50-50 your ahread here, and a decent draw if your not.

Turn fold is horrible. This pot is HUGE. If you have any chance of winning it you should stick around. The risk of getting in the middle of a raising war is troubling so proceed with caution, but for 1 bet you must make this call.

-G

chipolino · #6 05-06-2005, 04:07 PM

No man no reads, him betting out despite the the Ace on the turn just set alarm bells in my head. It was tough but I had to let it go. I'll post the results in an hour or so. Just trying to get more comments on people.

scotty34 · #7 05-06-2005, 04:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Turn fold is horrible. This pot is HUGE. If you have any chance of winning it you should stick around. The risk of getting in the middle of a raising war is troubling so proceed with caution, but for 1 bet you must make this call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. I am probably at least 80% certain that MP1 has us beat here. I can't imagine many holdings that MP1 would cap the flop then lead the turn when the A fell. We are getting 15:1 on our call, which is way more than enough if it was HU. However, with 2 players still left to act, and the overwhelming tendency of .5/1 players to call down with Aces, I think this tips it in favour of folding. Though the pot is large, our chances of winning is just too small, and combining that with the possibility of being raised, I think we have to fold.

Grail · #8 05-06-2005, 04:17 PM

You going to lose this hand very often, but you only have to win it about 10% of the time to make it worth calling at least on the turn.

-G

@bsolute_luck · #9 05-06-2005, 04:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You going to lose this hand very often, but you only have to win it about 10% of the time to make it worth calling at least on the turn.

-G

[/ QUOTE ]

see i think this is the thinking i hear often around these boards that never made sense to me:

"You're going to lose, but put more $$ in because you only need to win 10% of the time"- wha? i'm losing the hand. why would i put more in if it is apparent i'm going to lose the hand even though the pot is big (not big enough IMHO to draw to your 2 outs).

scotty34 · #10 05-06-2005, 04:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You going to lose this hand very often, but you only have to win it about 10% of the time to make it worth calling at least on the turn.

-G

[/ QUOTE ]

see i think this is the thinking i hear often around these boards that never made sense to me:

"You're going to lose, but put more $$ in because you only need to win 10% of the time"- wha? i'm losing the hand. why would i put more in if it is apparent i'm going to lose the hand even though the pot is big (not big enough IMHO to draw to your 2 outs).

[/ QUOTE ]

This theory is mostly aimed at calling a single river bet. It basically means that if the pot is 10BB, and it only costs you 1BB to call and you are closing the action, if you win the pot more than 10% of the time, it will be a profitable call. If you think there is even some possibility of your hand being good (your opponent is bluffing, or being a donk with a marginal hand) then you should call. You should be more inclined to call as the pot grows larger. Folding a winner in a large pot for one bet is a HUGE mistake.

There is a large section on this in SSH, and also, I recommend reading Ed Miller's post Why you guys aren't crushing these microlimit games...