Making very sure your JJ is beat ...

jskills · #1 05-03-2005, 12:52 AM

Villan is TAG. I felt the flop raise and lead on the turn was the only way to be sure he was for real. Chip spewing? Other line suggestions welcomed.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (9 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 folds, MP3 folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 10.50 BB

NickRegino · #2 05-03-2005, 12:56 AM

lol that'll make you know, although i dont like your 3-bet on the flop.

jskills · #3 05-03-2005, 12:58 AM

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lol that'll make you know, although i dont like your 3-bet on the flop.

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So what do you do? Call the flop raise and check fold the turn?

sweetjazz · #4 05-03-2005, 01:00 AM

What Q hands is he limping UTG+1? Maybe KQo, QJs (though you have two of the Js, so this is less likely) and QTs. Also, 66 and 44 area distinct possibilities. OTOH, he's likely to isolate raise you with 77-99 here (and A6s, A4s), and maybe even 55.

After his flop raise makes the pot heads-up, you can see a showdown for 2.5 BB. Instead, you invested 2 BB and didn't see a showdown, even though the turn card is pretty good for you, as it lowers the likelihood he has a Q. (Though, obviously, his turn raise indicates that he is quite likely to have a Q.)

You (1) forfeited your chance to spike a J on the river, and (2) folded the best hand against a medium PP some of the time.

I think it would have been worth it to invest the extra 0.5 BB to see a showdown. In addition, your willingness to play back at him may cause him to fold 77 or 88, whereas you'd rather he kept betting those hands given that he only has 2 outs.

When it's a close decision as to which line to take, I generally prefer to err on the side of seeing the showdown.

Shillx · #5 05-03-2005, 01:02 AM

No way he has a queen when he raises the turn. Any TAG who raises the turn with trips isn't a TAG. He might have a full house but certainly not trips. He might also be bluffing the queen so you would have to read him for 66 or 44 to make this fold imo.

Brad

Edit - Only an idiot would raise the turn with trips. All he is going to do is fold out worse hands and get raped by better hands. It would be correct for him to goto war with a full house since you "should" give non-stop action with a hand like AQ. In reality you wouldn't but he has to think that you would.

sweetjazz · #6 05-03-2005, 01:04 AM

TAGs come in many shapes, sizes, and flavors, but the good ones are raising with a lot of hands that you beat in that spot. OTOH, you're probably losing to more than 50% of the hands they are raising. That's an indicating that calling down might be the best line.

I think it's simply too expensive to get the information you need to be "sure" that your opponent has a Q.

jskills · #7 05-03-2005, 01:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What Q hands is he limping UTG+1? Maybe KQo, QJs (though you have two of the Js, so this is less likely) and QTs. Also, 66 and 44 area distinct possibilities. OTOH, he's likely to isolate raise you with 77-99 here (and A6s, A4s), and maybe even 55.

After his flop raise makes the pot heads-up, you can see a showdown for 2.5 BB. Instead, you invested 2 BB and didn't see a showdown, even though the turn card is pretty good for you, as it lowers the likelihood he has a Q. (Though, obviously, his turn raise indicates that he is quite likely to have a Q.)

You (1) forfeited your chance to spike a J on the river, and (2) folded the best hand against a medium PP some of the time.

I think it would have been worth it to invest the extra 0.5 BB to see a showdown. In addition, your willingness to play back at him may cause him to fold 77 or 88, whereas you'd rather he kept betting those hands given that he only has 2 outs.

When it's a close decision as to which line to take, I generally prefer to err on the side of seeing the showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

You make some very good points. The way I looked at it, 3-betting the flop and leading the turn (with the option to fold to a raise) costs us 1.5 BB whereas check / calling the last 2 streets costs us 2 BB. Your point about seeing a river and showdown do seem to outweigh the .5 BB, but I did believe there might be a possibility villan would fold on the turn, unless of course he had a Q or a boat. I can't see him raising in that spot unless he did.

jskills · #8 05-03-2005, 01:10 AM

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I think it's simply too expensive to get the information you need to be "sure" that your opponent has a Q.

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I cannot argue with this logic - I certainly would not use this line with any kind of regularity.

DMBFan23 · #9 05-03-2005, 01:11 AM

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Only an idiot would raise the turn with trips.

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<---- idiot

sweetjazz · #10 05-03-2005, 01:16 AM

Yeah, I do agree that your line may get a worse hand to fold. The problem, though, is that you want most worse hands to stay in. A hand like A6s has 5 outs, and you're pretty close to indifferent whether he chases or folds. But a hand like 77 has 2 outs, and you want him to keep betting.

I think the river is a bit tricky if you take the call-down line, because checking may allow him to check behind with a smaller PP like 88. OTOH, if you bet into him on the river, he'll almost surely raise with trips or a full boat, because he'll recognize that your line is weak and you almost surely don't have a Q yourself.

You're in a tough spot, because being out of position makes this hand much harder.