Fold to a turn raise in 5/10?

veganmav · #1 05-02-2005, 12:16 PM

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP1 calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (8.40 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, Button calls, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (6.20 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, Button raises, BB calls, MP1 folds, Hero calls.

River: (12.20 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button bets, BB folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.20 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has Js Ac (one pair, jacks).
Button has Qs Kc (one pair, kings).
Outcome: Button wins 14.20 BB. 

on the turn I realize I'm probably behind, to probably KQ, and possibly also KJ, or AK, I put him on KQ so I have three outs to the ace, and 2 outs to the jack for 5 outs, the pot is offering me about 11 to 1 and with 5 outs I am about 8 to 1 so if he had KQ i have odds to call. So I call his turn raise, the river doesn't help, and now the pot is offering me 13 to 1 on a call but am I over 90% sure that I'm beat? It's hard to be that sure, so I call the river bet too, is that ok? I am also disregarding the fact that he could have AK and KJ or a set, so I guess I probably should have just folded to his raise on the turn,.. disagree?

What do you all think?

Steve S · #2 05-02-2005, 12:26 PM

I think this is an easy fold on turn...especially w/ the bb calling the raise cold. As it turns out, it looks like the bb picked up a draw, but you are behind way too often to pay 2 more bets there.

xCEO · #3 05-02-2005, 12:34 PM

I disagree that this is an easy fold (maybe my mistake). Any reads?

veganmav · #4 05-02-2005, 12:38 PM

no reads yet [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] this is my 2nd round at this table sorry, but I am tending to think its a fold to the turn raise

flair1239 · #5 05-02-2005, 12:59 PM

This might be an error, but the way I have started thinking about turn raises.. (When I am otherwise in doubt) is this:

You are not actually getting 11-1 on the turn. You are getting 12-2 or 13-2. Reason being, is that if you know you are going to have to call on the river, you need to take that into account.

Also depending on the button, putting him just on KQ is misleading. I think you need to consider some PPs as well. So tour 5 outs probably need some discounting. It also seems BB is mildly interested in the hand as well.

So I think by facoring the fact you are probably going to call the river, that it makes this easier to fold.

That said, these situations give me fits as well. I estimate that my bad payoffs in these situaions cost me about .25-.5 BB/100.

veganmav · #6 05-02-2005, 01:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This might be an error, but the way I have started thinking about turn raises.. (When I am otherwise in doubt) is this:

You are not actually getting 11-1 on the turn. You are getting 12-2 or 13-2. Reason being, is that if you know you are going to have to call on the river, you need to take that into account.

Also depending on the button, putting him just on KQ is misleading. I think you need to consider some PPs as well. So tour 5 outs probably need some discounting. It also seems BB is mildly interested in the hand as well.

So I think by facoring the fact you are probably going to call the river, that it makes this easier to fold.

That said, these situations give me fits as well. I estimate that my bad payoffs in these situaions cost me about .25-.5 BB/100.

[/ QUOTE ]

seems to me you're pretty right, sounds like a laydown is in line in this situation

Liam Carver · #7 05-02-2005, 01:12 PM

Without looking at the results, I would say its fair to assume you are behind here. Without a read on this opponent, it is probably not wise to overcall this...a regretful fold.

Liam

Yads · #8 05-02-2005, 01:21 PM

What about calling the turn and folding the river UI?

veganmav · #9 05-02-2005, 01:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What about calling the turn and folding the river UI?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's hard to do that as you'd have to be over 90% sure that you are losing. Do you think you'd be that sure? to lay down a 13bet pot for just 1 more bet?

mute · #10 05-02-2005, 01:29 PM

Your five outs look good here most of the time. Even if you only had four (which I think is discounting your outs too much) you are still good enough to call.

However if you are planning on calling the river unimproved, that changes the odds quite a bit. You are now only getting 13:2. There's a twist though. Since you can't overcall or call a raise or bet from BB and there are some rivercards, that will make folding very easy, these odds are somewhat better.

I think I would fold the river, so I am calling the turn. If you are calling the river, I think it's close, but I would still call.