Or am I?

jason_t · #1 05-02-2005, 08:18 AM

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: I is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls, I raise, 2 folds, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (9 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, I bet, SB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, I check.

River: (6.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, I call....

uw_madtown · #2 05-02-2005, 08:20 AM

BET THE TURN YOU VAGINA.

You've got a gutshot to the nut straight and just picked up the nut flush draw, plus your K and Q outs might still be good. BET THIS FOR VALUE.

Argus · #3 05-02-2005, 08:22 AM

I like it. The only question I see here is on the river, and I think going for overcalls is better. In my opinion you are going to get more bets on average from SB and UTG+1 overcalling than you will from raising and having MP2 call. If you have any evidence that SB or UTG+1 would call two cold you're unforgiven for not raising, but I think you know that and chose to seek overcalls.

Argus · #4 05-02-2005, 08:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
BET THE TURN YOU VAGINA.

You've got a gutshot to the nut straight and just picked up the nut flush draw, plus your K and Q outs might still be good. BET THIS FOR VALUE.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think this is a clear check behind. You most likely do not have the best hand, you were offered a free card, and another bet is not winning you the pot. I think a check behind is best hoping to get bet into on the river if you improve; it also makes players more likely to call a river bet if the turn was checked through. It's unfortunate that the river bet came from where it did, but you can't predict that when checking the turn.

PS It's not the nut flush. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Fnord · #5 05-02-2005, 08:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You've got a gutshot to the nut straight and just picked up the nut flush draw, plus your K and Q outs might still be good. BET THIS FOR VALUE.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is betting 12 outs with one card to come (26.1%) into 3 players value? You must have all 3 call or all 3 fold to come out ahead. If you get check/raised by EP you've just had to put in 2 bets with the worst hand. I think someone with Ax just made a big mistake by giving you a freebie and it's hard to argue with taking advantage of it. Semi-bluffing at every chance without really thinking these things through is a pretty common mistake made by TAggs. Also, passing in spots like this makes you a tougher target to check/raise.

Chris Dow · #6 05-02-2005, 08:45 AM

This is 3/6, take the freaking free card. The river is very close. If there is any chance either of those donks will call 2 cold you should raise here.

uw_madtown · #7 05-02-2005, 08:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You've got a gutshot to the nut straight and just picked up the nut flush draw, plus your K and Q outs might still be good. BET THIS FOR VALUE.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is betting 12 outs with one card to come (26.1%) into 3 players value?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you have something like 14 outs (6 K/Q outs, discounted to 2)... that makes it ~30%, so... meh, maybe for value was a bit much... I still am betting this... I think if you didn't have the gutshot it's an obvious check-behind.

I dunno, more comments. I'm reconsidering but I still really like a turn bet here. Even if I was wrong about it being a nut flush draw because I'm stupid.

jason_t's still a vagina though.

Fnord · #8 05-02-2005, 08:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This is 3/6, take the freaking free card. The river is very close. If there is any chance either of those donks will call 2 cold you should raise here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'ts 3/6, for god sakes, raise! Ax cold calls 2 here way too often.

chief444 · #9 05-02-2005, 08:57 AM

I say XXXX the overcalls that you may or may not get anyway. Just raise the river.

Chris Dow · #10 05-02-2005, 09:05 AM

Yeah, on the river somehow I like to think I can gamble to get BOTH overcalls and that sounds like fun. Long term raise is looking better. On a sidenote, the poster who wants to bet the turn. I understand why you'd want to bet the turn if you think k/q are semi good. When you hit the K or Q you would much prefer the field to check so you can check behind and take the free showdown. Since you are losing very little of the turn bet because of your mega draw, it's a decent bet if you want to count k/q as partials. I'm more inclined to check and look for my best outs though.