Call an all in (or two) with AQo?

[jenium]

Any thoughts on this hand? My reasoning follows..


***** Hand History for Game 1980409823 *****
300/600 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 11801447) - Sun May 01 00:11:16 EDT 2005
Table Table 13971 (Real Money) -- Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: JEEPWJ1 (705)
Seat 2: Brewcity1212 (655)
Seat 3: ottumwagirl (800)
Seat 7: Seat11 (2560)
Seat 8: Nugzwins (1945)
Seat 10: jenium (1335)
Nugzwins posts small blind (150)
jenium posts big blind (300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to jenium [ Ah, Qc ]
JEEPWJ1 folds.
Brewcity1212 folds.
ottumwagirl raises (800) to 800
ottumwagirl is all-In.
Seat11 calls (800)
Nugzwins folds.
jenium raises (1035) to 1335
jenium is all-In.
Seat11 folds.
Creating Main Pot with $2550 with ottumwagirl
Creating Side Pot 1 with $535 with jenium
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 4h, 2d, Js ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 5s ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 4s ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: 2550 | Side Pot 1: 535
Board: [ 4h 2d Js 5s 4s ]
JEEPWJ1 balance 705, didn't bet (folded)
Brewcity1212 balance 655, didn't bet (folded)
ottumwagirl balance 2550, bet 800, collected 2550, net +1750 [ Ac Jh ] [ two pairs, jacks and fours -- Ac,Jh,Js,4h,4s ]
Seat11 balance 1760, lost 800 (folded)
Nugzwins balance 1795, lost 150 (folded)
jenium balance 535, bet 1335, collected 535, lost -800 [ Ah Qc ] [ a pair of fours -- Ah,Qc,Js,4h,4s ]

AQ may not be so strong after two pushers... it
was a really strange move for the big stack in middle position to call an all in for 800 and then fold for 500 more... But i did interpret his call as a sign of weakness, which is why i pushed. If the big stack had moved all in, I might have folded...or maybe it's still correct to call with such a strong hand and such large blinds? What do you guys think? Afterward, he claimed to have AJ also!

[hummusx]

I wouldn't make this move. Maybe the big stack did show weakness, but I would almost never expect him to fold for 500 more. So they you are in a 3-way pot with AQ. I can't think you are horribly far ahead of them collectively (unless they both actually have AJ, which is about the best think that could happen I think).

If you fold this and then have to fold in the SB, you still have 3xBB which probably gives you some FE. Unless the blinds are about to go up in the next 1-2 hands, I'd fold this and push one of the next couple hand when you can be first in.

[Nottom]

Seat11 is a 2+2er, maybe he can explain his action here?

[microbet]

Hmmm. Reads could be important here. Here's my attempted explanation for big stacks move:

Big stack has a medium pocket pair. He is sure it is a good call against the first push who will have a pretty large pushing range and whom he has covered.

You push after that. Big Stack may know who you, or at least who your brother is (or made the same mistake I'm making). Knowing this, he figures you have a very tight range for pushing after a push and a call and puts you on a big pair. Either that or he mis-clicked.

If you had folded and big stack won your $EV = .166
If you had folded and smaller stack won your $EV = .140
If you push, big stack calls and you win your $EV = .348
If you push, big stack folds and you win your $EV = .320
If you push, big stack folds and you lose your $EV = .0793

I don't think pretending I really know the hand ranges will make things more accurate when you fold. I think big stack thinks he has a better hand than the pusher, but not by a lot. I'm just going to guess the $EV for your folding is .155.

If you push and big stack folds, I think you are a pretty likely favorite and I put the $EV at about .23.

I think big stack folding is pretty rare here, no matter what, maybe 15%.

.15 * .23 + .85 * .348 * X = .155
X = .41 unless I screwed up

So you have to win the 3 way contest 41% of the time.

I don't think that is likely. I played around with some ranges on pokerstove and have a hard time getting you above about 39%.

If you have a good idea that big stack might fold, it would make it a better call, but that would be pretty hard to see coming.

Edit: This doesn't have anything to do with this post, but if this were a step 5 higher it would be a much better call. Your $EV winning would be over .38 and your $EV folding would be less than the .155, so you would need to win less than 37% of the time which would be much easier to come up with.

[john_]

A misfire....I hope?

[The Yugoslavian]

This indeed is a very interesting hand...

Hmmmmm. What sucks is I've played Seat11 quite a bit and am completely befuddled by his play here, [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img].

Yeah, so if he pushed I don't like your call - mainly b/c you gain $EV by folding so to warrant the risk here you need to put your opponents on very wide ranges, which I don't think is possible. Since he called, I *guess* you have some FE here. But, frankly, to me, his call would most likely mean he has a monster and *wants* to invite action from other desperate stacks.

I don't think he could have a good enough read on you to fold after you pushed.

I await Stupid Sucker's reasoning, [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]. Because I have *no* idea what the hell he was trying to do here?!?!

Yugoslav
PS Perhaps he was running to and from the bathroom naked and a neighbor saw, shrieked at the top of his/her lungs and he was so flustered he missclicked, [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

[curtains]

Whoever this 2+2'er is, he needs to learn a few things about poker. Calling for 800 and folding for 500 more is ridiculously bad poker.

[stupidsucker]

let me finish my set, and I'll be right with you.

[stupidsucker]

without going into detail I stand by my move.

My hand was good enough to call the all in. I liked my hand vs his push range A lot. When the BB pushed, I figured monster or at the very least I was dominated. 500chips is 500 chips. I let it go, and I will do it again.

As for the AQ push, I think it was too aggressive against a cold call from the Big stack. almost alll the time you will get called, and your odds are better off just sitting tight.

[curtains]

Folding for the 500 is simply dreadful, to stand by and defend your move is insane. There is 3000 chips in the pot and it costs you 500 to call, how can you even pretend to justify that in a $22 tournament?